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Average Value Analysis

Insurance Term

An actuarial method used to estimate ultimate losses for a given cohort of claims such as an accident year/product line component. If the paid-to-date losses are then subtracted from the estimated ultimate losses, the result is an indication of the unpaid losses.

The basic premise of the method is that average claim values are stable and predictable over time for a particular cohort of claims. The method is utilized most often where ultimate claim counts are known or reliably estimable fairly early after the start of an accident year and average values are expected to be fairly predictable from one year to the next.

Ultimate losses under the method equal the known or estimated ultimate claim counts times the estimated average value. Estimated ultimate claim counts are frequently based on a claim count development method, essentially the same as the paid and case incurred development methods mentioned elsewhere in this glossary but using claim count rather than claim dollar data. The average values can be based on historical trends from past closed claims, or backed into from estimated ultimate losses divided by estimated ultimate claim counts, or some other approach. When the average values are calculated from ultimate loss estimates, the resulting estimated averages may be supplemented with other data/analyses.

   
     

Average Value Analysis

Insurance Term

An actuarial method used to estimate ultimate losses for a given cohort of claims such as an accident year/product line component. If the paid-to-date losses are then subtracted from the estimated ultimate losses, the result is an indication of the unpaid losses.

The basic premise of the method is that average claim values are stable and predictable over time for a particular cohort of claims. The method is utilized most often where ultimate claim counts are known or reliably estimable fairly early after the start of an accident year and average values are expected to be fairly predictable from one year to the next.

Ultimate losses under the method equal the known or estimated ultimate claim counts times the estimated average value. Estimated ultimate claim counts are frequently based on a claim count development method, essentially the same as the paid and case incurred development methods mentioned elsewhere in this glossary but using claim count rather than claim dollar data. The average values can be based on historical trends from past closed claims, or backed into from estimated ultimate losses divided by estimated ultimate claim counts, or some other approach. When the average values are calculated from ultimate loss estimates, the resulting estimated averages may be supplemented with other data/analyses.

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