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Durable Goods orders grow again in March

U.S. Durable Goods, Orders, Shipments, Economic Indicators

New orders for Durable Goods are on the rise again, after recent weakness, excluding defense booking grew even faster 3.47 %. That category excludes defense and gives a better indication of longer-term trends in the private sector.In March total durable goods orders grew by 3.23 % to $276 billions, an increase of $9 billions from $268 in February on the seasonally adjusted basis. The rise in demand last month was lead by transportation and defense, but almost every sector tracked by the Commerce Department reported an increase. The expansion in durable goods orders is an encouraging sign, particularly in light of the loss of momentum in the manufacturing sector evident in recent survey reports. New orders jumped by 4.64 % for the year, and shipments by 4.92 %. The normal wild swings in big-ticket purchases continue but the trend is still up and that is all that matters, some Wallstreet economists added. Durable goods are typically bulky or heavy products designed to last at three years, such as trains, computers or furniture. The government’s durables report, however, is particularly volatile and subject to large swings month to month.


The U.S. Commerce Department reported inventories for U.S.-made products designed to last three years or more, such as autos or appliances dropped by -0.88 % to $489 billions, a decrease by $4 billions from $493 in February in March on the seasonally adjusted basis, as inventories of aircrafts and parts went down -5.37 % to $72 billions, accounting for 14.68 % of total durable goods inventories. Inventory to shipments ratio fell to 1.76 from 1.80 in the previous month.


Core capital equipment goods, which the government uses to help calculate quarterly reports on U.S. growth, orders fell despite the increase in total bookings, by -0.37 % on the seasonally adjusted basis and unfilled orders by -0.13 %.
Such core capital goods orders are considered the best gauge of capital spending by businesses.
Over the past 12 months, core capital goods bookings have climbed by 2.05 % and shipments by 4.36 %.



Manufacturing New Orders
Primary Metals New Orders
Capital Goods New Orders
Transp. Equip. New Orders
4.52% 5.11% 0.09% -3.26% 8.71% 8.27% 9.09% 13.01%
M/M
Y/Y
M/M
Y/Y
M/M
Y/Y
M/M
Y/Y


In February new orders were revised to -1.22 % decline to $268 billions and shipments to $274 billions a decrease of -0.84 %.

Unfilled orders continue to grow by higher rate, unfilled orders surged by 0.40 % on the seasonally adjusted basis, as unfilled bookings for defense aircraft and parts grew 1.10 % to $61 billions, accounting for 5.25 % of total durable goods unfilled orders. Government purchases of defense products are uneven and can sometimes distort the data. Over the past 12 months, Unfilled orders grew by 5.40 %.
Shipments of U.S.-made products designed to last three years or more, such as autos or appliances increased in March on the seasonally adjusted basis by 1.07 % to $277 billions, an increase of $3 billions from $274 in February, reported by the Commerce Department. Excluding transportation shipments fell by -0.22 %.


   

New Orders / Shipments Ratio

Inventory / Shipments Ratio
New orders / shipments ratio for total durable goods was 1.00. Excluding transportation new orders / shipments ratio was 0.97. Excluding defense new orders / shipments ratio was 1.00. 
Inventory / shipments ratio for total durable goods was 1.76. Excluding transportation Inventory / shipments ratio was 1.82. Excluding defense Inventory / shipments ratio was 1.77.
 



Shipments Seasonally Adjusted, in millions $ March 2023

adv.		 Feb. 2023

rest.		 Jan. 2023

rest.		 Oct. 2022

adv.		 Sep. 2022

rest.		 Oct. 2022

adv.
Total
276,950 274,019 276,335 277,660 276,278 275,396
Excluding transportation
183,658 184,067 184,838 183,867 184,024 184,525
Excluding defense
260,219 257,166 259,236 260,478 259,680 258,929
Manufacturing with unfilled orders
191,782 188,946 189,905 190,975 190,191 189,456
Primary metals
20,106 20,133 20,200 19,913 20,016 20,367
Fabricated metal products
36,445 36,379 36,281 36,588 36,446 36,618
Machinery
37,963 38,321 38,516 38,339 38,671 38,864
Computers & electronic products
29,361 29,466 29,571 29,549 29,599 29,489
Computers & related products
2,386 2,339 2,389 2,246 2,286 2,269
Communications equipment
3,127 3,181 3,146 3,218 3,220 3,270
Semiconductors
- - - - - -
Electrical equipment, appliances & components
14,205 14,071 14,217 13,683 13,656 13,413
Transportation equipment
93,292 89,952 91,497 93,793 92,254 90,871
Motor vehicles & parts
5,500 5,498 5,758 5,666 5,425 5,374
Nondefense Aircraft & parts
61,412 61,262 62,112 62,394 61,827 61,848
Defense Aircraft & parts
15,563 12,205 12,586 14,545 14,091 12,976
All other durable goods
45,578 45,697 46,053 45,795 45,636 45,774
Capital goods
100,318 97,428 98,539 100,273 99,365 98,185
Nondefense capital goods
85,791 82,788 83,685 85,230 85,046 83,876
Excluding aircraft
74,659 74,984 75,301 74,729 75,044 75,019
Defense capital goods
14,527 14,640 14,854 15,043 14,319 14,309





New Orders Seasonally Adjusted, in millions $ March 2023

adv.		 Feb. 2023

rest.		 Jan. 2023

rest.		 Oct. 2022

adv.		 Sep. 2022

rest.		 Oct. 2022

adv.
Total
276,405 267,765 271,061 286,885 271,588 277,375
Excluding transportation
179,007 178,485 178,954 178,825 179,028 179,613
Excluding defense
259,365 250,664 252,810 269,639 253,730 260,810
Manufacturing with unfilled orders
196,363 187,871 189,939 205,482 190,676 196,453
Primary metals
20,103 20,085 20,140 20,013 20,080 20,264
Fabricated metal products
36,248 36,197 35,936 36,451 36,339 36,471
Machinery
38,079 38,057 38,481 38,335 39,011 39,319
Computers & electronic products
24,697 24,232 24,187 24,175 24,312 24,324
Computers & related products
2,370 2,329 2,409 2,245 2,268 2,260
Communications equipment
3,043 3,048 3,137 3,215 3,094 3,197
Semiconductors
- - - - - -
Electrical equipment, appliances & components
14,333 14,224 14,179 14,021 13,760 13,670
Transportation equipment
97,398 89,280 92,107 108,060 92,560 97,762
Motor vehicles & parts
6,161 5,580 6,048 5,652 4,908 5,424
Nondefense Aircraft & parts
61,522 61,553 62,166 62,273 61,818 61,796
Defense Aircraft & parts
19,668 11,024 12,037 28,879 13,404 19,816
All other durable goods
45,547 45,690 46,031 45,830 45,526 45,565
Capital goods
104,041 95,706 98,705 115,540 99,798 105,094
Nondefense capital goods
89,554 81,153 83,093 100,590 84,415 90,983
Excluding aircraft
74,321 74,600 75,127 74,880 75,025 75,323
Defense capital goods
14,487 14,553 15,612 14,950 15,383 14,111




New Orders Seasonally Adjusted, in millions $
 March 2023

adv.		 Feb. 2023

rest.		 Jan. 2023

rest.		 Oct. 2022

adv.		 Sep. 2022

rest.		 Oct. 2022

adv.
Total
276,405 267,765 271,061 286,885 271,588 277,375
Excluding transportation
179,007 178,485 178,954 178,825 179,028 179,613
Excluding defense
259,365 250,664 252,810 269,639 253,730 260,810
Manufacturing with unfilled orders
196,363 187,871 189,939 205,482 190,676 196,453
Primary metals
20,103 20,085 20,140 20,013 20,080 20,264
Fabricated metal products
36,248 36,197 35,936 36,451 36,339 36,471
Machinery
38,079 38,057 38,481 38,335 39,011 39,319
Computers & electronic products
24,697 24,232 24,187 24,175 24,312 24,324
Computers & related products
2,370 2,329 2,409 2,245 2,268 2,260
Communications equipment
3,043 3,048 3,137 3,215 3,094 3,197
Semiconductors
- - - - - -
Electrical equipment, appliances & components
14,333 14,224 14,179 14,021 13,760 13,670
Transportation equipment
97,398 89,280 92,107 108,060 92,560 97,762
Motor vehicles & parts
6,161 5,580 6,048 5,652 4,908 5,424
Nondefense Aircraft & parts
61,522 61,553 62,166 62,273 61,818 61,796
Defense Aircraft & parts
19,668 11,024 12,037 28,879 13,404 19,816
All other durable goods
45,547 45,690 46,031 45,830 45,526 45,565
Capital goods
104,041 95,706 98,705 115,540 99,798 105,094
Nondefense capital goods
89,554 81,153 83,093 100,590 84,415 90,983
Excluding aircraft
74,321 74,600 75,127 74,880 75,025 75,323
Defense capital goods
14,487 14,553 15,612 14,950 15,383 14,111




Unfilled Orders Seasonally Adjusted, in millions $
 March 2023

adv.		 Feb. 2023

rest.		 Jan. 2023

rest.		 Oct. 2022

adv.		 Sep. 2022

rest.		 Oct. 2022

adv.
Total
1,160,180 1,155,599 1,156,674 1,158,241 1,143,734 1,144,273
Excluding transportation
472,218 471,743 472,146 473,216 472,976 473,156
Excluding defense
942,486 938,214 939,537 942,587 928,144 930,142
Manufacturing with unfilled orders
1,160,180 1,155,599 1,156,674 1,158,241 1,143,734 1,144,273
Primary metals
30,445 30,448 30,496 30,673 30,573 30,571
Fabricated metal products
116,516 116,713 116,895 117,368 117,505 117,616
Machinery
133,108 132,992 133,256 133,363 133,367 133,129
Computers & electronic products
140,398 139,936 139,991 140,047 140,139 140,391
Computers & related products
1,171 1,187 1,197 1,180 1,181 1,189
Communications equipment
20,719 20,803 20,936 20,897 20,900 21,161
Semiconductors
- - - - - -
Electrical equipment, appliances & components
40,612 40,484 40,331 40,552 40,214 40,172
Transportation equipment
687,962 683,856 684,528 685,025 670,758 671,117
Motor vehicles & parts
28,054 27,944 27,653 27,638 27,759 27,859
Nondefense Aircraft & parts
468,405 464,300 465,481 467,375 453,041 454,367
Defense Aircraft & parts
60,875 60,214 60,132 59,628 59,642 60,327
All other durable goods
11,139 11,170 11,177 11,213 11,178 11,277
Capital goods
854,980 851,257 852,979 854,130 838,863 839,344
Nondefense capital goods
666,075 662,312 663,947 666,081 650,721 652,403
Excluding aircraft
266,485 266,823 267,207 267,546 267,395 267,840
Defense capital goods
188,905 188,945 189,032 188,049 188,142 186,941



Total Inventories Seasonally Adjusted, in millions $
 March 2023

adv.		 Feb. 2023

rest.		 Jan. 2023

rest.		 Oct. 2022

adv.		 Sep. 2022

rest.		 Oct. 2022

adv.
Total
488,755 493,108 492,777 493,580 490,072 489,525
Excluding transportation
334,627 334,617 334,553 334,958 333,121 332,726
Excluding defense
461,613 465,894 465,525 466,533 463,090 462,951
Manufacturing with unfilled orders
391,561 395,699 395,580 396,165 392,407 391,116
Primary metals
38,280 38,431 38,381 38,367 38,242 38,489
Fabricated metal products
62,179 62,112 62,253 62,406 62,377 62,520
Machinery
89,062 88,895 88,663 88,232 87,035 86,565
Computers & electronic products
52,882 52,939 53,069 53,357 53,115 53,084
Computers & related products
3,791 3,728 3,754 3,996 3,955 3,959
Communications equipment
5,456 5,465 5,523 5,569 5,453 5,419
Semiconductors
- - - - - -
Electrical equipment, appliances & components
23,930 23,850 23,745 23,901 23,696 23,373
Transportation equipment
154,128 158,491 158,224 158,622 156,951 156,799
Motor vehicles & parts
51,415 51,809 51,842 51,626 51,837 51,802
Nondefense Aircraft & parts
71,770 75,841 75,559 76,503 74,647 74,971
Defense Aircraft & parts
12,909 12,890 12,943 12,811 12,831 12,773
All other durable goods
68,294 68,390 68,442 68,695 68,656 68,695
Capital goods
238,273 242,065 241,565 241,991 238,900 238,173
Nondefense capital goods
215,196 218,897 218,350 218,947 215,916 215,601
Excluding aircraft
154,258 153,883 153,576 153,158 151,949 151,292
Defense capital goods
23,077 23,168 23,215 23,044 22,984 22,572




Inventory/Shipments ratio Seasonally Adjusted
 March 2023

adv.		 Feb. 2023

rest.		 Jan. 2023

rest.		 Oct. 2022

adv.		 Sep. 2022

rest.		 Oct. 2022

adv.
Total
1.76 1.80 1.78 1.78 1.77 1.78
Excluding transportation
1.82 1.82 1.81 1.82 1.81 1.80
Excluding defense
1.77 1.81 1.80 1.79 1.78 1.79
Manufacturing with unfilled orders
2.04 2.09 2.08 2.07 2.06 2.06
Primary metals
1.90 1.91 1.90 1.93 1.91 1.89
Fabricated metal products
1.71 1.71 1.72 1.71 1.71 1.71
Machinery
2.35 2.32 2.30 2.30 2.25 2.23
Computers & electronic products
1.80 1.80 1.79 1.81 1.79 1.80
Computers & related products
1.59 1.59 1.57 1.78 1.73 1.74
Communications equipment
1.74 1.72 1.76 1.73 1.69 1.66
Semiconductors
- - - - - -
Electrical equipment, appliances & components
1.68 1.69 1.67 1.75 1.74 1.74
Transportation equipment
1.65 1.76 1.73 1.69 1.70 1.73
Motor vehicles & parts
0.84 0.85 0.83 0.83 0.84 0.84
Nondefense Aircraft & parts
4.61 6.21 6.00 5.26 5.30 5.78
Defense Aircraft & parts
2.35 2.34 2.25 2.26 2.37 2.38
All other durable goods
1.50 1.50 1.49 1.50 1.50 1.50
Capital goods
2.38 2.48 2.45 2.41 2.40 2.43
Nondefense capital goods
2.51 2.64 2.61 2.57 2.54 2.57
Excluding aircraft
2.07 2.05 2.04 2.05 2.02 2.02
Defense capital goods
1.59 1.58 1.56 1.53 1.61 1.58




• Source U.S. Census Bureau, Manufacturing and Construction Division




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