New Orders on the rise again in July

U.S. Durable Goods, Orders, Shipments, Economic Indicators

Americans continued to buy big-ticket items after the recent pullback, but Shipments of durable goods fell by -1.59 % to $254 billions.Orders for U.S.-made products designed to last three years or more, such as autos or appliances increased in July on the seasonally adjusted basis by 1.80 % to $250 billions, an increase of $4 billions from $246 in June, reported by the Commerce Department. The rise in demand last month was lead by transportation and defense, but almost every sector tracked by the Commerce Department reported an increase. The growth in the manufacturing sector indicates that the recent decline in new orders is a temporary lull - but another poor report could renew worries over the U.S. growth. Durable Goods orders increased by 1.43 % from July 2018, and inventories by 4.66 %.

In July U.S. durable-goods shipments decreased by -1.59 % to $254 billions, a decrease by $4 billions from $258 in June on the seasonally adjusted basis. Excluding transportation shipments fell by -1.03 %.

Manufacturing New Orders		Primary Metals New Orders		Capital Goods New Orders		Transp. Equip. New Orders
2.79%	1.14%	-1.11%	-7.26%	5.66%	2.41%	7.24%	4.22%
*M/M*	Y/Y	M/M	Y/Y	M/M	Y/Y	M/M	Y/Y

What's more, demand for big-ticket outside the defense and transportation sectors, a category known as core capital goods, usually declines in the first month of a new quarter based on long-standing business purchasing habits. Another category of orders closely watched by economists, known as core capital goods, orders sunk despite the increase in total bookings, by -0.70 % on the seasonally adjusted basis, and shipments by -1.35 %.
That category excludes defense and transportation and gives a better indication of longer-term trends in the private sector.
Over the past 12 months, core capital goods bookings decreased by -0.04 %, but inventories grew by 5.18 %.
Inventories increased in July by 0.34 % to $427 billions, an increase of $1 billions from $426 in June on the seasonally adjusted basis, reported by the U.S. Commerce Department. Inventory to shipments ratio grew to 1.68 from 1.65 in the previous month.

Unfilled orders have rebounded from decline in previous period, unfilled orders increased by 0.11 % on the seasonally adjusted basis, led by 1.31 % increase in electrical equipment unfilled bookings, representing 1.72 % of total unfilled orders. Over the past 12 months, Unfilled orders decreased by -0.27 %.


New Orders / Shipments Ratio	Inventory / Shipments Ratio
New orders / shipments ratio for total durable goods was 0.99. Excluding transportation new orders / shipments ratio was 0.98. Excluding defense new orders / shipments ratio was 0.99.	Inventory / shipments ratio for total durable goods was 1.68. Excluding transportation Inventory / shipments ratio was 1.71. Excluding defense Inventory / shipments ratio was 1.67.

Shipments Seasonally Adjusted, in millions $	July 2019 adv.	June 2019 adv.	May 2019 adv.	April 2019 adv.	March 2019 adv.	Feb. 2019 adv.
Total	254,036	258,153	254,092	253,302	259,571	258,581
Excluding transportation	167,646	169,399	168,337	167,501	168,866	168,792
Excluding defense	239,358	243,184	239,037	238,355	245,053	244,321
Manufacturing with unfilled orders	174,348	178,109	176,299	176,248	180,127	180,111
Primary metals	20,209	20,637	20,652	21,016	21,382	21,401
Fabricated metal products	33,591	33,915	33,620	33,324	34,164	33,991
Machinery	32,866	33,594	33,419	32,881	33,238	33,336
Computers & electronic products	27,917	28,238	28,311	28,101	27,741	28,038
Computers & related products	1,700	1,756	1,813	1,836	1,742	1,822
Communications equipment	3,916	3,880	3,826	3,838	3,821	3,828
Semiconductors	-	-	-	-	-	-
Electrical equipment, appliances & components	11,899	11,802	11,586	11,566	11,553	11,536
Transportation equipment	86,390	88,754	85,755	85,801	90,705	89,789
Motor vehicles & parts	4,559	4,590	60,555	4,769	62,994	61,554
Nondefense Aircraft & parts	62,685	62,678	10,407	60,244	13,591	13,795
Defense Aircraft & parts	9,270	11,130	4,708	10,991	4,473	4,668
All other durable goods	41,164	41,213	40,749	40,613	40,788	40,490
Capital goods	87,005	90,250	89,098	88,763	91,580	91,212
Nondefense capital goods	74,401	77,257	76,086	75,919	79,027	78,947
Excluding aircraft	69,441	70,389	70,086	69,390	69,631	69,567
Defense capital goods	12,604	12,993	13,012	12,844	12,553	12,265

New Orders Seasonally Adjusted, in millions $	July 2019 adv.	June 2019 adv.	May 2019 adv.	April 2019 adv.	March 2019 adv.	Feb. 2019 adv.
Total	250,380	245,958	243,367	248,395	258,524	250,577
Excluding transportation	164,055	165,463	163,371	163,018	164,739	164,546
Excluding defense	236,713	233,614	227,976	231,298	242,009	236,385
Manufacturing with unfilled orders	175,035	170,279	169,928	175,522	183,326	176,488
Primary metals	20,273	20,500	20,589	20,864	21,476	21,537
Fabricated metal products	33,953	34,314	33,307	33,278	33,800	34,342
Machinery	32,916	33,364	32,824	32,603	33,156	33,158
Computers & electronic products	23,744	24,192	24,091	23,946	24,168	23,532
Computers & related products	1,705	1,722	1,770	1,822	1,750	1,814
Communications equipment	3,912	3,843	3,695	3,704	3,897	3,586
Semiconductors	-	-	-	-	-	-
Electrical equipment, appliances & components	12,108	11,887	11,731	11,687	11,489	11,495
Transportation equipment	86,325	80,495	79,996	85,377	93,785	86,031
Motor vehicles & parts	3,527	2,882	60,477	5,456	63,112	61,820
Nondefense Aircraft & parts	62,636	62,561	5,338	60,020	14,457	10,185
Defense Aircraft & parts	10,613	6,236	4,534	9,182	5,559	4,613
All other durable goods	41,061	41,206	40,829	40,640	40,650	40,482
Capital goods	87,635	82,940	84,657	88,684	94,397	86,698
Nondefense capital goods	75,842	72,127	70,792	73,958	80,468	74,548
Excluding aircraft	69,658	70,146	68,950	68,766	69,979	68,873
Defense capital goods	11,793	10,813	13,865	14,726	13,929	12,150

New Orders Seasonally Adjusted, in millions $	July 2019 adv.	June 2019 adv.	May 2019 adv.	April 2019 adv.	March 2019 adv.	Feb. 2019 adv.
Total	250,380	245,958	243,367	248,395	258,524	250,577
Excluding transportation	164,055	165,463	163,371	163,018	164,739	164,546
Excluding defense	236,713	233,614	227,976	231,298	242,009	236,385
Manufacturing with unfilled orders	175,035	170,279	169,928	175,522	183,326	176,488
Primary metals	20,273	20,500	20,589	20,864	21,476	21,537
Fabricated metal products	33,953	34,314	33,307	33,278	33,800	34,342
Machinery	32,916	33,364	32,824	32,603	33,156	33,158
Computers & electronic products	23,744	24,192	24,091	23,946	24,168	23,532
Computers & related products	1,705	1,722	1,770	1,822	1,750	1,814
Communications equipment	3,912	3,843	3,695	3,704	3,897	3,586
Semiconductors	-	-	-	-	-	-
Electrical equipment, appliances & components	12,108	11,887	11,731	11,687	11,489	11,495
Transportation equipment	86,325	80,495	79,996	85,377	93,785	86,031
Motor vehicles & parts	3,527	2,882	60,477	5,456	63,112	61,820
Nondefense Aircraft & parts	62,636	62,561	5,338	60,020	14,457	10,185
Defense Aircraft & parts	10,613	6,236	4,534	9,182	5,559	4,613
All other durable goods	41,061	41,206	40,829	40,640	40,650	40,482
Capital goods	87,635	82,940	84,657	88,684	94,397	86,698
Nondefense capital goods	75,842	72,127	70,792	73,958	80,468	74,548
Excluding aircraft	69,658	70,146	68,950	68,766	69,979	68,873
Defense capital goods	11,793	10,813	13,865	14,726	13,929	12,150

Unfilled Orders Seasonally Adjusted, in millions $	July 2019 adv.	June 2019 adv.	May 2019 adv.	April 2019 adv.	March 2019 adv.	Feb. 2019 adv.
Total	1,161,639	1,160,358	1,171,228	1,179,098	1,181,868	1,177,643
Excluding transportation	368,420	367,807	367,583	368,492	369,945	370,450
Excluding defense	964,554	961,808	969,096	977,333	981,722	980,286
Manufacturing with unfilled orders	1,161,639	1,160,358	1,171,228	1,179,098	1,181,868	1,177,643
Primary metals	31,309	31,024	31,330	31,529	31,905	31,854
Fabricated metal products	86,515	86,202	85,581	85,772	86,092	86,950
Machinery	103,025	103,141	103,579	104,366	105,093	105,362
Computers & electronic products	118,495	118,524	118,190	118,116	118,370	117,485
Computers & related products	2,152	2,147	2,172	2,215	2,235	2,227
Communications equipment	25,679	25,709	25,746	25,935	26,069	25,986
Semiconductors	-	-	-	-	-	-
Electrical equipment, appliances & components	20,030	19,771	19,735	19,525	19,276	19,364
Transportation equipment	793,219	792,551	803,645	810,606	811,923	807,193
Motor vehicles & parts	26,919	26,923	27,080	27,054	27,613	27,680
Nondefense Aircraft & parts	581,130	578,775	585,547	591,927	593,874	592,020
Defense Aircraft & parts	79,814	81,087	83,070	83,364	82,390	81,135
All other durable goods	9,046	9,145	9,168	9,184	9,209	9,435
Capital goods	849,484	848,677	859,007	864,538	866,211	861,729
Nondefense capital goods	693,626	691,578	698,748	705,336	708,157	705,713
Excluding aircraft	218,746	218,802	219,108	220,560	221,711	221,356
Defense capital goods	155,858	157,099	160,259	159,202	158,054	156,016

Total Inventories Seasonally Adjusted, in millions $	July 2019 adv.	June 2019 adv.	May 2019 adv.	April 2019 adv.	March 2019 adv.	Feb. 2019 adv.
Total	427,285	425,839	424,577	422,579	420,512	418,924
Excluding transportation	286,212	286,260	286,159	286,491	286,245	284,858
Excluding defense	398,917	397,684	396,771	394,800	393,056	391,641
Manufacturing with unfilled orders	348,372	347,337	346,209	344,681	342,768	341,130
Primary metals	35,735	35,857	36,144	36,533	36,405	36,543
Fabricated metal products	54,720	54,675	54,694	54,880	54,889	54,761
Machinery	72,343	72,125	71,885	71,748	71,631	70,812
Computers & electronic products	43,317	43,537	43,307	43,375	43,638	43,452
Computers & related products	3,797	3,809	3,751	3,734	3,901	3,819
Communications equipment	5,558	5,570	5,534	5,574	5,548	5,562
Semiconductors	-	-	-	-	-	-
Electrical equipment, appliances & components	20,371	20,334	20,299	20,237	20,097	20,002
Transportation equipment	141,073	139,579	138,418	136,088	134,267	134,066
Motor vehicles & parts	38,420	38,309	38,348	38,049	37,728	37,980
Nondefense Aircraft & parts	73,131	72,032	71,117	69,139	68,108	67,863
Defense Aircraft & parts	13,384	13,335	13,255	13,400	13,173	13,320
All other durable goods	59,726	59,732	59,830	59,718	59,585	59,288
Capital goods	214,493	212,984	211,551	209,246	207,960	206,504
Nondefense capital goods	190,496	189,188	188,090	185,867	184,851	183,566
Excluding aircraft	129,895	129,653	129,337	129,041	129,050	128,089
Defense capital goods	23,997	23,796	23,461	23,379	23,109	22,938

Inventory/Shipments ratio Seasonally Adjusted	July 2019 adv.	June 2019 adv.	May 2019 adv.	April 2019 adv.	March 2019 adv.	Feb. 2019 adv.
Total	1.68	1.65	1.67	1.67	1.62	1.62
Excluding transportation	1.71	1.69	1.70	1.71	1.70	1.69
Excluding defense	1.67	1.64	1.66	1.66	1.60	1.60
Manufacturing with unfilled orders	2.00	1.95	1.96	1.96	1.90	1.89
Primary metals	1.77	1.74	1.75	1.74	1.70	1.71
Fabricated metal products	1.63	1.61	1.63	1.65	1.61	1.61
Machinery	2.20	2.15	2.15	2.18	2.16	2.12
Computers & electronic products	1.55	1.54	1.53	1.54	1.57	1.55
Computers & related products	2.23	2.17	2.07	2.03	2.24	2.10
Communications equipment	1.42	1.44	1.45	1.45	1.45	1.45
Semiconductors	-	-	-	-	-	-
Electrical equipment, appliances & components	1.71	1.72	1.75	1.75	1.74	1.73
Transportation equipment	1.63	1.57	1.61	1.59	1.48	1.49
Motor vehicles & parts	0.61	0.61	0.63	0.63	0.60	0.62
Nondefense Aircraft & parts	7.89	6.47	6.83	6.29	5.01	4.92
Defense Aircraft & parts	2.94	2.91	2.82	2.81	2.95	2.85
All other durable goods	1.45	1.45	1.47	1.47	1.46	1.46
Capital goods	2.47	2.36	2.37	2.36	2.27	2.26
Nondefense capital goods	2.56	2.45	2.47	2.45	2.34	2.33
Excluding aircraft	1.87	1.84	1.85	1.86	1.85	1.84
Defense capital goods	1.90	1.83	1.80	1.82	1.84	1.87

• Source U.S. Census Bureau, Manufacturing and Construction Division

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New Orders on the rise again in July

U.S. Durable Goods, Orders, Shipments, Economic Indicators

New Orders / Shipments Ratio

Inventory / Shipments Ratio