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New orders accelerate in December

U.S. Durable Goods, Orders, Shipments, Economic Indicators



New orders increased on the faster pace again, excluding defense booking grew even faster 1.05 %. That category excludes defense and gives a better indication of longer-term trends in the private sector.Orders for U.S.-made products designed to last at least three years grew in December by 0.48 % to $245 billions, an increase of $1 billions from $244 in November on the seasonally adjusted basis, orders for machinery grew the most, up 3.04 % to $33 billions, reported by the Commerce Department. With bookings rising across the board, demand for primary metals, fabricated metal products, machinery orders, while orders for computers and related products declined. The manufacturing sector has played a vital role in the economy lately because of the reluctance of Americans to spend. Durable Goods orders increased by 1.11 % from Nov. 2019, but durable goods inventories fell by -1.85 %.


In December total durable goods inventories declined by -0.16 % to $426 billions, a decrease by $1 billions from $427 in November on the seasonally adjusted basis, as inventories of aircrafts and parts went down -2.75 % to $79 billions, accounting for 18.45 % of total durable goods inventories. Inventory to shipments ratio fell to 1.68 from 1.71 in the previous month.


Another category of orders closely watched by economists, known as core capital goods, orders have climbed by 1.23 % on the seasonally adjusted basis and inventories by 1.23 % %. Over the last 12 months, core capital goods bookings soared by 3.43 % and shipments by 1.65 %.



Manufacturing New Orders
Primary Metals New Orders
Capital Goods New Orders
Transp. Equip. New Orders
-0.29% -1.55% 1.11% -0.98% -2.07% 0.89% -1.04% -1.47%
M/M
Y/Y
M/M
Y/Y
M/M
Y/Y
M/M
Y/Y


Unfilled orders fell by -0.23 % on the seasonally adjusted basis, led by -1.23 % decrease in defense aircraft and parts unfilled bookings, representing 7.34 % of total durable goods unfilled orders. Government purchases of defense products are uneven and can sometimes distort the data.. total durable goods inventories dropped by -7.64 % from Nov. 2019.
Shipments of U.S.-made products designed to last three years or more, such as autos or appliances increased in December on the seasonally adjusted basis by 1.48 % to $254 billions, an increase of $4 billions from $250 in November, reported by the Commerce Department. Shipments excluding the volatile transportation sector, grew by 0.74 %.


   

New Orders / Shipments Ratio

Inventory / Shipments Ratio

New orders / shipments ratio for total durable goods was 0.97. Excluding transportation new orders / shipments ratio was 0.99. Excluding defense new orders / shipments ratio was 0.97. 
Inventory / shipments ratio for total durable goods was 1.68. Excluding transportation Inventory / shipments ratio was 1.64. Excluding defense Inventory / shipments ratio was 1.67.
 



Shipments Seasonally Adjusted, in millions $ Dec. 2020

adv.
Nov. 2020

adv.
Oct. 2020

adv.
Sep. 2020

adv.
Aug. 2020

adv.
July 2020

adv.
Total
253,795 250,096 248,694 245,565 244,137 244,013
Excluding transportation
169,024 167,777 166,992 163,732 162,500 160,851
Excluding defense
239,509 234,963 234,250 231,774 230,260 229,986
Manufacturing with unfilled orders
169,845 167,928 168,129 163,739 163,365 161,460
Primary metals
19,654 19,183 18,792 18,366 18,288 18,080
Fabricated metal products
31,206 31,041 30,863 30,136 30,073 29,910
Machinery
31,801 31,650 31,406 31,019 31,056 30,332
Computers & electronic products
30,812 30,786 31,040 30,395 29,741 29,563
Computers & related products
1,848 1,930 1,902 1,804 1,919 1,821
Communications equipment
4,473 4,446 4,667 4,248 4,153 4,075
Semiconductors
- - - - - -
Electrical equipment, appliances & components
10,877 10,895 10,933 10,540 10,507 10,519
Transportation equipment
84,771 82,319 81,702 81,833 81,637 83,162
Motor vehicles & parts
3,564 4,235 4,201 62,052 4,111 4,265
Nondefense Aircraft & parts
63,096 61,896 60,119 5,110 61,328 64,205
Defense Aircraft & parts
6,258 4,276 6,313 3,742 5,331 3,947
All other durable goods
44,674 44,222 43,958 43,276 42,835 42,447
Capital goods
86,945 85,191 85,741 82,744 82,262 79,865
Nondefense capital goods
74,219 71,804 73,212 70,614 70,062 67,550
Excluding aircraft
70,208 69,888 69,380 67,800 67,165 65,906
Defense capital goods
12,726 13,387 12,529 12,130 12,200 12,315





New Orders Seasonally Adjusted, in millions $ Dec. 2020

adv.
Nov. 2020

adv.
Oct. 2020

adv.
Sep. 2020

adv.
Aug. 2020

adv.
July 2020

adv.
Total
245,325 244,161 240,769 237,751 232,841 230,672
Excluding transportation
167,305 165,322 163,652 161,542 158,072 155,928
Excluding defense
232,537 230,123 227,040 226,679 217,758 215,011
Manufacturing with unfilled orders
166,624 167,108 165,378 161,210 157,036 153,237
Primary metals
19,890 19,672 19,436 19,355 18,416 17,895
Fabricated metal products
32,110 31,794 31,845 31,132 30,055 29,951
Machinery
33,156 32,179 31,581 31,770 31,195 30,509
Computers & electronic products
26,241 26,351 25,972 25,187 24,894 24,389
Computers & related products
1,902 1,963 1,912 1,825 1,901 1,809
Communications equipment
4,740 4,852 4,624 4,268 4,244 4,021
Semiconductors
- - - - - -
Electrical equipment, appliances & components
11,231 11,105 10,884 10,781 10,672 10,730
Transportation equipment
78,020 78,839 77,117 76,209 74,769 74,744
Motor vehicles & parts
2,848 3,266 2,957 62,105 4,321 4,665
Nondefense Aircraft & parts
63,155 62,051 60,109 1,905 61,438 64,226
Defense Aircraft & parts
1,143 2,291 2,645 1,651 -2,784 -5,801
All other durable goods
44,677 44,221 43,934 43,317 42,840 42,454
Capital goods
82,021 83,751 83,218 81,001 76,583 72,067
Nondefense capital goods
70,268 71,236 70,473 70,644 62,927 58,038
Excluding aircraft
71,772 70,901 70,025 69,510 67,703 66,099
Defense capital goods
11,753 12,515 12,745 10,357 13,656 14,029




New Orders Seasonally Adjusted, in millions $
Dec. 2020

adv.
Nov. 2020

adv.
Oct. 2020

adv.
Sep. 2020

adv.
Aug. 2020

adv.
July 2020

adv.
Total
245,325 244,161 240,769 237,751 232,841 230,672
Excluding transportation
167,305 165,322 163,652 161,542 158,072 155,928
Excluding defense
232,537 230,123 227,040 226,679 217,758 215,011
Manufacturing with unfilled orders
166,624 167,108 165,378 161,210 157,036 153,237
Primary metals
19,890 19,672 19,436 19,355 18,416 17,895
Fabricated metal products
32,110 31,794 31,845 31,132 30,055 29,951
Machinery
33,156 32,179 31,581 31,770 31,195 30,509
Computers & electronic products
26,241 26,351 25,972 25,187 24,894 24,389
Computers & related products
1,902 1,963 1,912 1,825 1,901 1,809
Communications equipment
4,740 4,852 4,624 4,268 4,244 4,021
Semiconductors
- - - - - -
Electrical equipment, appliances & components
11,231 11,105 10,884 10,781 10,672 10,730
Transportation equipment
78,020 78,839 77,117 76,209 74,769 74,744
Motor vehicles & parts
2,848 3,266 2,957 62,105 4,321 4,665
Nondefense Aircraft & parts
63,155 62,051 60,109 1,905 61,438 64,226
Defense Aircraft & parts
1,143 2,291 2,645 1,651 -2,784 -5,801
All other durable goods
44,677 44,221 43,934 43,317 42,840 42,454
Capital goods
82,021 83,751 83,218 81,001 76,583 72,067
Nondefense capital goods
70,268 71,236 70,473 70,644 62,927 58,038
Excluding aircraft
71,772 70,901 70,025 69,510 67,703 66,099
Defense capital goods
11,753 12,515 12,745 10,357 13,656 14,029




Unfilled Orders Seasonally Adjusted, in millions $
Dec. 2020

adv.
Nov. 2020

adv.
Oct. 2020

adv.
Sep. 2020

adv.
Aug. 2020

adv.
July 2020

adv.
Total
1,070,372 1,072,883 1,073,151 1,073,151 1,078,447 1,084,435
Excluding transportation
364,035 359,560 356,191 356,191 350,432 349,266
Excluding defense
855,421 856,079 855,023 855,023 856,316 863,559
Manufacturing with unfilled orders
1,070,372 1,072,883 1,073,151 1,073,151 1,078,447 1,084,435
Primary metals
33,393 33,071 32,463 32,463 30,770 30,375
Fabricated metal products
77,371 76,276 75,381 75,381 72,957 72,719
Machinery
100,937 99,307 98,587 98,587 97,356 97,204
Computers & electronic products
120,463 119,686 118,814 118,814 118,798 118,661
Computers & related products
1,956 1,889 1,866 1,866 1,835 1,852
Communications equipment
26,298 26,099 25,586 25,586 25,657 25,498
Semiconductors
- - - - - -
Electrical equipment, appliances & components
23,138 22,564 22,319 22,319 22,042 21,829
Transportation equipment
706,337 713,323 716,960 716,960 728,015 735,169
Motor vehicles & parts
21,560 21,460 21,206 21,206 21,131 21,221
Nondefense Aircraft & parts
470,278 475,370 477,606 477,606 484,883 493,167
Defense Aircraft & parts
78,529 79,504 80,627 80,627 84,291 84,137
All other durable goods
8,733 8,656 8,627 8,627 8,509 8,478
Capital goods
765,251 769,807 771,035 771,035 775,335 780,785
Nondefense capital goods
587,684 591,152 591,326 591,326 593,712 600,777
Excluding aircraft
224,152 222,075 220,671 220,671 217,953 217,295
Defense capital goods
177,567 178,655 179,709 179,709 181,623 180,008



Total Inventories Seasonally Adjusted, in millions $
Dec. 2020

adv.
Nov. 2020

adv.
Oct. 2020

adv.
Sep. 2020

adv.
Aug. 2020

adv.
July 2020

adv.
Total
425,948 426,615 422,751 422,751 420,460 422,572
Excluding transportation
277,983 275,921 274,596 274,596 273,938 276,083
Excluding defense
400,645 401,379 397,096 397,096 395,057 397,187
Manufacturing with unfilled orders
347,834 347,824 345,115 345,115 343,323 345,140
Primary metals
34,317 33,797 33,592 33,592 33,028 33,536
Fabricated metal products
52,217 51,778 51,403 51,403 51,261 51,886
Machinery
69,841 69,313 68,839 68,839 69,128 69,710
Computers & electronic products
43,647 43,530 43,602 43,602 43,850 43,995
Computers & related products
3,986 3,911 3,914 3,914 3,852 3,860
Communications equipment
5,262 5,257 5,291 5,291 5,238 5,239
Semiconductors
- - - - - -
Electrical equipment, appliances & components
20,022 19,865 19,680 19,680 19,700 19,828
Transportation equipment
147,965 150,694 148,155 148,155 146,522 146,489
Motor vehicles & parts
39,596 40,250 39,135 39,135 39,062 39,387
Nondefense Aircraft & parts
78,582 80,802 79,151 79,151 78,066 77,854
Defense Aircraft & parts
12,383 12,359 12,451 12,451 12,449 12,447
All other durable goods
57,939 57,638 57,480 57,480 56,971 57,128
Capital goods
215,492 217,104 215,062 215,062 214,162 214,457
Nondefense capital goods
194,410 196,070 193,609 193,609 193,002 193,298
Excluding aircraft
128,380 127,769 127,097 127,097 127,654 127,990
Defense capital goods
21,082 21,034 21,453 21,453 21,160 21,159




Inventory/Shipments ratio Seasonally Adjusted
Dec. 2020

adv.
Nov. 2020

adv.
Oct. 2020

adv.
Sep. 2020

adv.
Aug. 2020

adv.
July 2020

adv.
Total
1.68 1.71 1.70 1.72 1.72 1.73
Excluding transportation
1.64 1.64 1.64 1.68 1.69 1.72
Excluding defense
1.67 1.71 1.70 1.71 1.72 1.73
Manufacturing with unfilled orders
2.05 2.07 2.05 2.11 2.10 2.14
Primary metals
1.75 1.76 1.79 1.83 1.81 1.85
Fabricated metal products
1.67 1.67 1.67 1.71 1.70 1.73
Machinery
2.20 2.19 2.19 2.22 2.23 2.30
Computers & electronic products
1.42 1.41 1.40 1.43 1.47 1.49
Computers & related products
2.16 2.03 2.06 2.17 2.01 2.12
Communications equipment
1.18 1.18 1.13 1.25 1.26 1.29
Semiconductors
- - - - - -
Electrical equipment, appliances & components
1.84 1.82 1.80 1.87 1.87 1.88
Transportation equipment
1.75 1.83 1.81 1.81 1.79 1.76
Motor vehicles & parts
0.63 0.65 0.65 0.63 0.64 0.61
Nondefense Aircraft & parts
12.56 18.90 12.54 15.49 14.64 19.72
Defense Aircraft & parts
3.47 2.92 2.96 3.33 3.03 2.92
All other durable goods
1.30 1.30 1.31 1.33 1.33 1.35
Capital goods
2.48 2.55 2.51 2.60 2.60 2.69
Nondefense capital goods
2.62 2.73 2.64 2.74 2.75 2.86
Excluding aircraft
1.83 1.83 1.83 1.87 1.90 1.94
Defense capital goods
1.66 1.57 1.71 1.77 1.73 1.72




Source U.S. Census Bureau, Manufacturing and Construction Division


       
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