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Durable Goods fell -3.90 %, Shipments up

U.S. Durable Goods, Orders, Shipments, Economic Indicators



Orders for long-lasting U.S. goods fell sharply in January, although shipments grew slightly, as decline in primary metals orders offset a gain in bookings for fabricated metal.The Commerce Department reported orders for U.S.-made big-ticket items deteriorated in January by -3.90 % to $240 billions, a decrease by $10 billions from $249 in December on the seasonally adjusted basis. What’s unclear is whether the size of the decline in January reflects a one-month aberration, or the start of a new trend. Economists say it takes at least several months of data to find out. New orders jumped by 4.07 % for the year, and shipments by 3.63 %. The increase in orders has been spearheaded by a growth among U.S. manufacturers. They are seeing greater demand for a variety of goods, including passenger jets, primary metals and machinery. Durable goods are big-ticket items such as autos, planes, appliances, furniture and computers designed to last at least three years. While orders jump around from month to month, they have gradually been increasing.


The Commerce Department announced total durable goods shipments edge up by 0.07 % to $247 billions, an increase of $0 billions from $247 in December in January on the seasonally adjusted basis, as shipments of computers and related products grew the most, up 7.54 % to $2 billions. Shipments excluding the volatile transportation sector, grew by 0.06 %.




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Manufacturing New Orders
Primary Metals New Orders
Capital Goods New Orders
Transp. Equip. New Orders
-5.11% 3.65% -0.35% 13.48% -5.80% 4.29% -10.87% 1.72%
M/M
Y/Y
M/M
Y/Y
M/M
Y/Y
M/M
Y/Y

What's more, demand for big-ticket outside the defense and transportation sectors, a category known as core capital goods, usually declines in the first month of a new quarter based on long-standing business purchasing habits. Another category of orders closely watched by economists, known as core capital goods, orders sunk by -0.66 % on the seasonally adjusted basis, but shipments grew by 0.09 %.
That category excludes defense and transportation and gives a better indication of longer-term trends in the private sector.
Over the last 12 months, core capital goods bookings soared by 3.29 % and shipments by 5.79 %.
Inventories grew in January by 0.49 % to $409 billions, an increase of $2 billions from $407 in December on the seasonally adjusted basis, as inventories of aircrafts and parts grew 1.27 % to $68 billions, reported by the Commerce Department. Inventory to shipments ratio grew to 1.65 from 1.65 in the previous month.

Unfilled orders fell by -0.28 % on the seasonally adjusted basis, as unfilled orders for electrical equipment fell -2.44 % to $22 billions. total durable goods inventories grew by 2.38 % over the past 12 months.
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New Orders / Shipments Ratio

Inventory / Shipments Ratio

New orders / shipments ratio for total durable goods was 0.97. Excluding transportation new orders / shipments ratio was 0.98. Excluding defense new orders / shipments ratio was 0.98. 
Inventory / shipments ratio for total durable goods was 1.65. Excluding transportation Inventory / shipments ratio was 1.67. Excluding defense Inventory / shipments ratio was 1.63.
 



Shipments Seasonally Adjusted, in millions $ Jan. 2018

adv.
Dec. 2017

adv.
Nov. 2017

adv.
Oct. 2017

adv.
Sep. 2017

rest.
Aug. 2017

adv.
Total
246,997 246,812 244,524 240,963 240,532 237,199
Excluding transportation
165,682 165,583 163,195 161,846 160,808 158,881
Excluding defense
233,392 233,661 231,453 228,047 227,869 224,823
Manufacturing with unfilled orders
174,547 173,806 172,271 169,306 169,570 166,919
Primary metals
20,728 20,677 20,023 19,924 19,835 19,637
Fabricated metal products
33,659 33,462 32,696 32,545 32,401 32,048
Machinery
32,788 32,683 32,632 32,091 31,893 31,433
Computers & electronic products
28,245 27,979 27,947 27,556 27,315 27,072
Computers & related products
1,926 1,791 1,902 1,938 1,914 2,029
Communications equipment
3,298 3,277 3,239 3,117 3,027 2,907
Semiconductors
- - - - - -
Electrical equipment, appliances & components
10,315 10,179 10,178 10,198 10,143 9,958
Transportation equipment
81,315 81,229 81,329 79,117 79,724 78,318
Motor vehicles & parts
56,323 56,570 56,098 55,372 54,537 54,209
Nondefense Aircraft & parts
11,437 11,310 12,067 10,769 12,531 11,507
Defense Aircraft & parts
4,228 4,208 4,204 4,226 3,978 4,067
All other durable goods
39,947 40,603 39,719 39,532 39,221 38,733
Capital goods
85,898 85,352 85,732 83,230 84,143 81,955
Nondefense capital goods
74,369 74,266 74,622 72,366 73,540 71,565
Excluding aircraft
67,114 67,052 66,667 65,786 65,144 64,431
Defense capital goods
11,529 11,086 11,110 10,864 10,603 10,390





New Orders Seasonally Adjusted, in millions $ Jan. 2018

adv.
Dec. 2017

adv.
Nov. 2017

adv.
Oct. 2017

adv.
Sep. 2017

rest.
Aug. 2017

adv.
Total
239,724 249,448 241,358 236,006 238,695 232,798
Excluding transportation
162,002 162,246 160,421 158,865 157,446 155,425
Excluding defense
228,738 235,129 228,758 224,499 225,343 220,070
Manufacturing with unfilled orders
171,441 180,671 173,412 168,815 172,331 166,979
Primary metals
20,764 20,836 20,370 20,035 19,895 19,636
Fabricated metal products
34,152 33,582 33,166 33,047 33,273 32,540
Machinery
32,917 33,169 32,589 32,167 31,761 31,863
Computers & electronic products
24,145 23,867 24,093 23,791 23,323 22,818
Computers & related products
1,932 1,825 1,922 1,962 1,948 2,059
Communications equipment
3,497 3,261 3,524 3,519 3,429 3,161
Semiconductors
- - - - - -
Electrical equipment, appliances & components
9,992 10,251 10,402 10,299 10,040 9,858
Transportation equipment
77,722 87,202 80,937 77,141 81,249 77,373
Motor vehicles & parts
56,438 56,757 56,228 55,495 54,645 53,886
Nondefense Aircraft & parts
10,376 14,460 12,513 10,575 12,752 10,521
Defense Aircraft & parts
2,760 5,329 3,697 3,111 3,848 4,108
All other durable goods
40,032 40,541 39,801 39,526 39,154 38,710
Capital goods
82,822 87,922 85,985 82,177 86,417 81,624
Nondefense capital goods
73,644 75,116 75,421 72,262 74,876 70,959
Excluding aircraft
66,695 67,135 67,142 66,172 65,935 64,752
Defense capital goods
9,178 12,806 10,564 9,915 11,541 10,665




New Orders Seasonally Adjusted, in millions $
Jan. 2018

adv.
Dec. 2017

adv.
Nov. 2017

adv.
Oct. 2017

adv.
Sep. 2017

rest.
Aug. 2017

adv.
Total
239,724 249,448 241,358 236,006 238,695 232,798
Excluding transportation
162,002 162,246 160,421 158,865 157,446 155,425
Excluding defense
228,738 235,129 228,758 224,499 225,343 220,070
Manufacturing with unfilled orders
171,441 180,671 173,412 168,815 172,331 166,979
Primary metals
20,764 20,836 20,370 20,035 19,895 19,636
Fabricated metal products
34,152 33,582 33,166 33,047 33,273 32,540
Machinery
32,917 33,169 32,589 32,167 31,761 31,863
Computers & electronic products
24,145 23,867 24,093 23,791 23,323 22,818
Computers & related products
1,932 1,825 1,922 1,962 1,948 2,059
Communications equipment
3,497 3,261 3,524 3,519 3,429 3,161
Semiconductors
- - - - - -
Electrical equipment, appliances & components
9,992 10,251 10,402 10,299 10,040 9,858
Transportation equipment
77,722 87,202 80,937 77,141 81,249 77,373
Motor vehicles & parts
56,438 56,757 56,228 55,495 54,645 53,886
Nondefense Aircraft & parts
10,376 14,460 12,513 10,575 12,752 10,521
Defense Aircraft & parts
2,760 5,329 3,697 3,111 3,848 4,108
All other durable goods
40,032 40,541 39,801 39,526 39,154 38,710
Capital goods
82,822 87,922 85,985 82,177 86,417 81,624
Nondefense capital goods
73,644 75,116 75,421 72,262 74,876 70,959
Excluding aircraft
66,695 67,135 67,142 66,172 65,935 64,752
Defense capital goods
9,178 12,806 10,564 9,915 11,541 10,665




Unfilled Orders Seasonally Adjusted, in millions $
Jan. 2018

adv.
Dec. 2017

adv.
Nov. 2017

adv.
Oct. 2017

adv.
Sep. 2017

final
Aug. 2017

adv.
Total
1,140,851 1,144,099 1,134,617 1,134,617 1,135,073 1,132,333
Excluding transportation
369,089 368,222 364,890 364,890 362,958 361,351
Excluding defense
966,379 966,475 957,774 957,774 955,998 953,969
Manufacturing with unfilled orders
1,140,851 1,144,099 1,134,617 1,134,617 1,135,073 1,132,333
Primary metals
31,674 31,514 30,850 30,850 30,619 30,341
Fabricated metal products
82,390 81,265 80,804 80,804 80,174 79,316
Machinery
102,173 102,315 100,957 100,957 100,959 101,095
Computers & electronic products
119,982 119,898 119,451 119,451 118,599 117,922
Computers & related products
2,011 2,005 1,944 1,944 1,920 1,886
Communications equipment
28,659 28,447 28,258 28,258 27,840 27,387
Semiconductors
- - - - - -
Electrical equipment, appliances & components
22,279 22,837 22,531 22,531 22,221 22,198
Transportation equipment
771,762 775,877 769,727 769,727 772,115 770,982
Motor vehicles & parts
24,638 24,449 23,981 23,981 23,931 23,463
Nondefense Aircraft & parts
581,181 582,278 578,369 578,369 578,104 578,678
Defense Aircraft & parts
70,932 72,685 72,109 72,109 73,590 74,059
All other durable goods
10,591 10,393 10,297 10,297 10,386 10,479
Capital goods
847,086 851,053 847,525 847,525 848,676 846,574
Nondefense capital goods
706,110 707,285 705,228 705,228 704,788 704,001
Excluding aircraft
228,667 229,438 228,293 228,293 227,742 226,761
Defense capital goods
140,976 143,768 142,297 142,297 143,888 142,573



Total Inventories Seasonally Adjusted, in millions $
Jan. 2018

adv.
Dec. 2017

adv.
Nov. 2017

adv.
Oct. 2017

adv.
Sep. 2017

final
Aug. 2017

adv.
Total
408,537 406,535 404,056 404,056 403,569 400,548
Excluding transportation
276,676 275,741 273,148 273,148 272,750 270,782
Excluding defense
381,230 379,069 376,222 376,222 376,007 372,864
Manufacturing with unfilled orders
332,517 330,781 328,671 328,671 328,029 325,526
Primary metals
34,338 34,150 33,851 33,851 33,598 33,336
Fabricated metal products
51,331 50,847 50,511 50,511 50,373 49,982
Machinery
70,325 70,404 69,598 69,598 69,779 69,020
Computers & electronic products
45,481 45,325 45,048 45,048 45,087 44,831
Computers & related products
4,362 4,387 4,389 4,389 4,407 4,349
Communications equipment
4,596 4,595 4,548 4,548 4,554 4,675
Semiconductors
- - - - - -
Electrical equipment, appliances & components
18,260 18,183 17,771 17,771 17,817 17,718
Transportation equipment
131,861 130,794 130,908 130,908 130,819 129,766
Motor vehicles & parts
35,380 35,019 34,612 34,612 35,008 34,588
Nondefense Aircraft & parts
67,764 66,912 67,044 67,044 66,713 65,901
Defense Aircraft & parts
13,184 13,414 13,397 13,397 13,225 13,433
All other durable goods
56,941 56,832 56,369 56,369 56,096 55,895
Capital goods
205,094 204,139 203,283 203,283 203,291 201,771
Nondefense capital goods
181,943 180,907 179,655 179,655 179,892 178,294
Excluding aircraft
125,626 125,534 124,215 124,215 124,666 123,683
Defense capital goods
23,151 23,232 23,628 23,628 23,399 23,477




Inventory/Shipments ratio Seasonally Adjusted
Jan. 2018

adv.
Dec. 2017

adv.
Nov. 2017

adv.
Oct. 2017

adv.
Sep. 2017

final
Aug. 2017

adv.
Total
1.65 1.65 1.65 1.68 1.68 1.69
Excluding transportation
1.67 1.67 1.67 1.69 1.70 1.70
Excluding defense
1.63 1.62 1.63 1.65 1.65 1.66
Manufacturing with unfilled orders
1.91 1.90 1.91 1.94 1.93 1.95
Primary metals
1.66 1.65 1.69 1.70 1.69 1.70
Fabricated metal products
1.53 1.52 1.54 1.55 1.55 1.56
Machinery
2.14 2.15 2.13 2.17 2.19 2.20
Computers & electronic products
1.61 1.62 1.61 1.63 1.65 1.66
Computers & related products
2.26 2.45 2.31 2.26 2.30 2.14
Communications equipment
1.39 1.40 1.40 1.46 1.50 1.61
Semiconductors
- - - - - -
Electrical equipment, appliances & components
1.77 1.79 1.75 1.74 1.76 1.78
Transportation equipment
1.62 1.61 1.61 1.65 1.64 1.66
Motor vehicles & parts
0.63 0.62 0.62 0.63 0.64 0.64
Nondefense Aircraft & parts
5.92 5.92 5.56 6.23 5.32 5.73
Defense Aircraft & parts
3.12 3.19 3.19 3.17 3.32 3.30
All other durable goods
1.43 1.40 1.42 1.43 1.43 1.44
Capital goods
2.39 2.39 2.37 2.44 2.42 2.46
Nondefense capital goods
2.45 2.44 2.41 2.48 2.45 2.49
Excluding aircraft
1.87 1.87 1.86 1.89 1.91 1.92
Defense capital goods
2.01 2.10 2.13 2.17 2.21 2.26




Source U.S. Census Bureau, Manufacturing and Construction Division


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