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Durable Goods orders grow again in March
U.S. Durable Goods, Orders, Shipments, Economic Indicators
New orders for Durable Goods are on the rise again, after recent weakness, excluding defense booking grew even faster 3.47 %. That category excludes defense and gives a better indication of longer-term trends in the private sector.In March total durable goods orders grew by 3.23 % to $276 billions, an increase of $9 billions from $268 in February on the seasonally adjusted basis. The rise in demand last month was lead by transportation and defense, but almost every sector tracked by the Commerce Department reported an increase. The expansion in durable goods orders is an encouraging sign, particularly in light of the loss of momentum in the manufacturing sector evident in recent survey reports. New orders jumped by 4.64 % for the year, and shipments by 4.92 %. The normal wild swings in big-ticket purchases continue but the trend is still up and that is all that matters, some Wallstreet economists added. Durable goods are typically bulky or heavy products designed to last at three years, such as trains, computers or furniture. The government’s durables report, however, is particularly volatile and subject to large swings month to month.
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The U.S. Commerce Department reported inventories for U.S.-made products designed to last three years or more, such as autos or appliances dropped by -0.88 % to $489 billions, a decrease by $4 billions from $493 in February in March on the seasonally adjusted basis, as inventories of aircrafts and parts went down -5.37 % to $72 billions, accounting for 14.68 % of total durable goods inventories. Inventory to shipments ratio fell to 1.76 from 1.80 in the previous month.
Core capital equipment goods, which the government uses to help calculate quarterly reports on U.S. growth, orders fell despite the increase in total bookings, by -0.37 % on the seasonally adjusted basis and unfilled orders by -0.13 %. Such core capital goods orders are considered the best gauge of capital spending by businesses. Over the past 12 months, core capital goods bookings have climbed by 2.05 % and shipments by 4.36 %.
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Manufacturing New
Orders |
Primary
Metals New Orders |
Capital
Goods New Orders |
Transp.
Equip. New Orders |
4.52% |
5.11% |
0.09% |
-3.26% |
8.71% |
8.27% |
9.09% |
13.01% |
M/M |
Y/Y |
M/M |
Y/Y |
M/M |
Y/Y |
M/M |
Y/Y |
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In February new orders were revised to -1.22 % decline to $268 billions and shipments to $274 billions a decrease of -0.84 %.
Unfilled orders continue to grow by higher rate, unfilled orders surged by 0.40 % on the seasonally adjusted basis, as unfilled bookings for defense aircraft and parts grew 1.10 % to $61 billions, accounting for 5.25 % of total durable goods unfilled orders. Government purchases of defense products are uneven and can sometimes distort the data. Over the past 12 months, Unfilled orders grew by 5.40 %.
Shipments of U.S.-made products designed to last three years or more, such as autos or appliances increased in March on the seasonally adjusted basis by 1.07 % to $277 billions, an increase of $3 billions from $274 in February, reported by the Commerce Department. Excluding transportation shipments fell by -0.22 %.
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New Orders / Shipments Ratio |
Inventory / Shipments Ratio |
New orders / shipments ratio for total durable goods was 1.00. Excluding transportation new orders / shipments ratio was 0.97. Excluding defense new orders / shipments ratio was 1.00.
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Inventory / shipments ratio for total durable goods was 1.76. Excluding
transportation Inventory / shipments ratio was 1.82. Excluding defense Inventory
/ shipments ratio was 1.77.
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|
Shipments Seasonally Adjusted, in millions $ |
March 2023
adv. |
Feb. 2023
rest. |
Jan. 2023
rest. |
Oct. 2022
adv. |
Sep. 2022
rest. |
Oct. 2022
adv. |
Total |
|
276,950 |
274,019 |
276,335 |
277,660 |
276,278 |
275,396 |
Excluding transportation |
|
183,658 |
184,067 |
184,838 |
183,867 |
184,024 |
184,525 |
Excluding defense |
|
260,219 |
257,166 |
259,236 |
260,478 |
259,680 |
258,929 |
Manufacturing with
unfilled orders |
|
191,782 |
188,946 |
189,905 |
190,975 |
190,191 |
189,456 |
Primary metals |
|
20,106 |
20,133 |
20,200 |
19,913 |
20,016 |
20,367 |
Fabricated metal products |
|
36,445 |
36,379 |
36,281 |
36,588 |
36,446 |
36,618 |
Machinery |
|
37,963 |
38,321 |
38,516 |
38,339 |
38,671 |
38,864 |
Computers & electronic
products |
|
29,361 |
29,466 |
29,571 |
29,549 |
29,599 |
29,489 |
Computers & related products |
|
2,386 |
2,339 |
2,389 |
2,246 |
2,286 |
2,269 |
Communications equipment |
|
3,127 |
3,181 |
3,146 |
3,218 |
3,220 |
3,270 |
Semiconductors |
|
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
Electrical equipment,
appliances & components |
|
14,205 |
14,071 |
14,217 |
13,683 |
13,656 |
13,413 |
Transportation equipment |
|
93,292 |
89,952 |
91,497 |
93,793 |
92,254 |
90,871 |
Motor vehicles & parts |
|
5,500 |
5,498 |
5,758 |
5,666 |
5,425 |
5,374 |
Nondefense Aircraft & parts |
|
61,412 |
61,262 |
62,112 |
62,394 |
61,827 |
61,848 |
Defense Aircraft & parts |
|
15,563 |
12,205 |
12,586 |
14,545 |
14,091 |
12,976 |
All other durable
goods |
|
45,578 |
45,697 |
46,053 |
45,795 |
45,636 |
45,774 |
Capital goods |
|
100,318 |
97,428 |
98,539 |
100,273 |
99,365 |
98,185 |
Nondefense capital goods |
|
85,791 |
82,788 |
83,685 |
85,230 |
85,046 |
83,876 |
Excluding aircraft |
|
74,659 |
74,984 |
75,301 |
74,729 |
75,044 |
75,019 |
Defense capital goods |
|
14,527 |
14,640 |
14,854 |
15,043 |
14,319 |
14,309 |
New Orders Seasonally Adjusted, in millions $ |
March 2023
adv. |
Feb. 2023
rest. |
Jan. 2023
rest. |
Oct. 2022
adv. |
Sep. 2022
rest. |
Oct. 2022
adv. |
Total |
|
276,405 |
267,765 |
271,061 |
286,885 |
271,588 |
277,375 |
Excluding transportation |
|
179,007 |
178,485 |
178,954 |
178,825 |
179,028 |
179,613 |
Excluding defense |
|
259,365 |
250,664 |
252,810 |
269,639 |
253,730 |
260,810 |
Manufacturing with
unfilled orders |
|
196,363 |
187,871 |
189,939 |
205,482 |
190,676 |
196,453 |
Primary metals |
|
20,103 |
20,085 |
20,140 |
20,013 |
20,080 |
20,264 |
Fabricated metal products |
|
36,248 |
36,197 |
35,936 |
36,451 |
36,339 |
36,471 |
Machinery |
|
38,079 |
38,057 |
38,481 |
38,335 |
39,011 |
39,319 |
Computers & electronic
products |
|
24,697 |
24,232 |
24,187 |
24,175 |
24,312 |
24,324 |
Computers & related products |
|
2,370 |
2,329 |
2,409 |
2,245 |
2,268 |
2,260 |
Communications equipment |
|
3,043 |
3,048 |
3,137 |
3,215 |
3,094 |
3,197 |
Semiconductors |
|
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
Electrical equipment,
appliances & components |
|
14,333 |
14,224 |
14,179 |
14,021 |
13,760 |
13,670 |
Transportation equipment |
|
97,398 |
89,280 |
92,107 |
108,060 |
92,560 |
97,762 |
Motor vehicles & parts |
|
6,161 |
5,580 |
6,048 |
5,652 |
4,908 |
5,424 |
Nondefense Aircraft & parts |
|
61,522 |
61,553 |
62,166 |
62,273 |
61,818 |
61,796 |
Defense Aircraft & parts |
|
19,668 |
11,024 |
12,037 |
28,879 |
13,404 |
19,816 |
All other durable
goods |
|
45,547 |
45,690 |
46,031 |
45,830 |
45,526 |
45,565 |
Capital goods |
|
104,041 |
95,706 |
98,705 |
115,540 |
99,798 |
105,094 |
Nondefense capital goods |
|
89,554 |
81,153 |
83,093 |
100,590 |
84,415 |
90,983 |
Excluding aircraft |
|
74,321 |
74,600 |
75,127 |
74,880 |
75,025 |
75,323 |
Defense capital goods |
|
14,487 |
14,553 |
15,612 |
14,950 |
15,383 |
14,111 |
New Orders Seasonally Adjusted, in millions $ |
March 2023
adv. |
Feb. 2023
rest. |
Jan. 2023
rest. |
Oct. 2022
adv. |
Sep. 2022
rest. |
Oct. 2022
adv. |
Total |
|
276,405 |
267,765 |
271,061 |
286,885 |
271,588 |
277,375 |
Excluding transportation |
|
179,007 |
178,485 |
178,954 |
178,825 |
179,028 |
179,613 |
Excluding defense |
|
259,365 |
250,664 |
252,810 |
269,639 |
253,730 |
260,810 |
Manufacturing with
unfilled orders |
|
196,363 |
187,871 |
189,939 |
205,482 |
190,676 |
196,453 |
Primary metals |
|
20,103 |
20,085 |
20,140 |
20,013 |
20,080 |
20,264 |
Fabricated metal products |
|
36,248 |
36,197 |
35,936 |
36,451 |
36,339 |
36,471 |
Machinery |
|
38,079 |
38,057 |
38,481 |
38,335 |
39,011 |
39,319 |
Computers & electronic
products |
|
24,697 |
24,232 |
24,187 |
24,175 |
24,312 |
24,324 |
Computers & related products |
|
2,370 |
2,329 |
2,409 |
2,245 |
2,268 |
2,260 |
Communications equipment |
|
3,043 |
3,048 |
3,137 |
3,215 |
3,094 |
3,197 |
Semiconductors |
|
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
Electrical equipment,
appliances & components |
|
14,333 |
14,224 |
14,179 |
14,021 |
13,760 |
13,670 |
Transportation equipment |
|
97,398 |
89,280 |
92,107 |
108,060 |
92,560 |
97,762 |
Motor vehicles & parts |
|
6,161 |
5,580 |
6,048 |
5,652 |
4,908 |
5,424 |
Nondefense Aircraft & parts |
|
61,522 |
61,553 |
62,166 |
62,273 |
61,818 |
61,796 |
Defense Aircraft & parts |
|
19,668 |
11,024 |
12,037 |
28,879 |
13,404 |
19,816 |
All other durable
goods |
|
45,547 |
45,690 |
46,031 |
45,830 |
45,526 |
45,565 |
Capital goods |
|
104,041 |
95,706 |
98,705 |
115,540 |
99,798 |
105,094 |
Nondefense capital goods |
|
89,554 |
81,153 |
83,093 |
100,590 |
84,415 |
90,983 |
Excluding aircraft |
|
74,321 |
74,600 |
75,127 |
74,880 |
75,025 |
75,323 |
Defense capital goods |
|
14,487 |
14,553 |
15,612 |
14,950 |
15,383 |
14,111 |
Unfilled Orders Seasonally Adjusted, in millions $ |
March 2023
adv. |
Feb. 2023
rest. |
Jan. 2023
rest. |
Oct. 2022
adv. |
Sep. 2022
rest. |
Oct. 2022
adv. |
Total |
|
1,160,180 |
1,155,599 |
1,156,674 |
1,158,241 |
1,143,734 |
1,144,273 |
Excluding transportation |
|
472,218 |
471,743 |
472,146 |
473,216 |
472,976 |
473,156 |
Excluding defense |
|
942,486 |
938,214 |
939,537 |
942,587 |
928,144 |
930,142 |
Manufacturing with
unfilled orders |
|
1,160,180 |
1,155,599 |
1,156,674 |
1,158,241 |
1,143,734 |
1,144,273 |
Primary metals |
|
30,445 |
30,448 |
30,496 |
30,673 |
30,573 |
30,571 |
Fabricated metal products |
|
116,516 |
116,713 |
116,895 |
117,368 |
117,505 |
117,616 |
Machinery |
|
133,108 |
132,992 |
133,256 |
133,363 |
133,367 |
133,129 |
Computers & electronic
products |
|
140,398 |
139,936 |
139,991 |
140,047 |
140,139 |
140,391 |
Computers & related products |
|
1,171 |
1,187 |
1,197 |
1,180 |
1,181 |
1,189 |
Communications equipment |
|
20,719 |
20,803 |
20,936 |
20,897 |
20,900 |
21,161 |
Semiconductors |
|
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
Electrical equipment,
appliances & components |
|
40,612 |
40,484 |
40,331 |
40,552 |
40,214 |
40,172 |
Transportation equipment |
|
687,962 |
683,856 |
684,528 |
685,025 |
670,758 |
671,117 |
Motor vehicles & parts |
|
28,054 |
27,944 |
27,653 |
27,638 |
27,759 |
27,859 |
Nondefense Aircraft & parts |
|
468,405 |
464,300 |
465,481 |
467,375 |
453,041 |
454,367 |
Defense Aircraft & parts |
|
60,875 |
60,214 |
60,132 |
59,628 |
59,642 |
60,327 |
All other durable
goods |
|
11,139 |
11,170 |
11,177 |
11,213 |
11,178 |
11,277 |
Capital goods |
|
854,980 |
851,257 |
852,979 |
854,130 |
838,863 |
839,344 |
Nondefense capital goods |
|
666,075 |
662,312 |
663,947 |
666,081 |
650,721 |
652,403 |
Excluding aircraft |
|
266,485 |
266,823 |
267,207 |
267,546 |
267,395 |
267,840 |
Defense capital goods |
|
188,905 |
188,945 |
189,032 |
188,049 |
188,142 |
186,941 |
Total Inventories Seasonally Adjusted, in millions $ |
March 2023
adv. |
Feb. 2023
rest. |
Jan. 2023
rest. |
Oct. 2022
adv. |
Sep. 2022
rest. |
Oct. 2022
adv. |
Total |
|
488,755 |
493,108 |
492,777 |
493,580 |
490,072 |
489,525 |
Excluding transportation |
|
334,627 |
334,617 |
334,553 |
334,958 |
333,121 |
332,726 |
Excluding defense |
|
461,613 |
465,894 |
465,525 |
466,533 |
463,090 |
462,951 |
Manufacturing with
unfilled orders |
|
391,561 |
395,699 |
395,580 |
396,165 |
392,407 |
391,116 |
Primary metals |
|
38,280 |
38,431 |
38,381 |
38,367 |
38,242 |
38,489 |
Fabricated metal products |
|
62,179 |
62,112 |
62,253 |
62,406 |
62,377 |
62,520 |
Machinery |
|
89,062 |
88,895 |
88,663 |
88,232 |
87,035 |
86,565 |
Computers & electronic
products |
|
52,882 |
52,939 |
53,069 |
53,357 |
53,115 |
53,084 |
Computers & related products |
|
3,791 |
3,728 |
3,754 |
3,996 |
3,955 |
3,959 |
Communications equipment |
|
5,456 |
5,465 |
5,523 |
5,569 |
5,453 |
5,419 |
Semiconductors |
|
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
Electrical equipment,
appliances & components |
|
23,930 |
23,850 |
23,745 |
23,901 |
23,696 |
23,373 |
Transportation equipment |
|
154,128 |
158,491 |
158,224 |
158,622 |
156,951 |
156,799 |
Motor vehicles & parts |
|
51,415 |
51,809 |
51,842 |
51,626 |
51,837 |
51,802 |
Nondefense Aircraft & parts |
|
71,770 |
75,841 |
75,559 |
76,503 |
74,647 |
74,971 |
Defense Aircraft & parts |
|
12,909 |
12,890 |
12,943 |
12,811 |
12,831 |
12,773 |
All other durable
goods |
|
68,294 |
68,390 |
68,442 |
68,695 |
68,656 |
68,695 |
Capital goods |
|
238,273 |
242,065 |
241,565 |
241,991 |
238,900 |
238,173 |
Nondefense capital goods |
|
215,196 |
218,897 |
218,350 |
218,947 |
215,916 |
215,601 |
Excluding aircraft |
|
154,258 |
153,883 |
153,576 |
153,158 |
151,949 |
151,292 |
Defense capital goods |
|
23,077 |
23,168 |
23,215 |
23,044 |
22,984 |
22,572 |
Inventory/Shipments ratio Seasonally Adjusted |
March 2023
adv. |
Feb. 2023
rest. |
Jan. 2023
rest. |
Oct. 2022
adv. |
Sep. 2022
rest. |
Oct. 2022
adv. |
Total |
|
1.76 |
1.80 |
1.78 |
1.78 |
1.77 |
1.78 |
Excluding transportation |
|
1.82 |
1.82 |
1.81 |
1.82 |
1.81 |
1.80 |
Excluding defense |
|
1.77 |
1.81 |
1.80 |
1.79 |
1.78 |
1.79 |
Manufacturing with
unfilled orders |
|
2.04 |
2.09 |
2.08 |
2.07 |
2.06 |
2.06 |
Primary metals |
|
1.90 |
1.91 |
1.90 |
1.93 |
1.91 |
1.89 |
Fabricated metal products |
|
1.71 |
1.71 |
1.72 |
1.71 |
1.71 |
1.71 |
Machinery |
|
2.35 |
2.32 |
2.30 |
2.30 |
2.25 |
2.23 |
Computers & electronic
products |
|
1.80 |
1.80 |
1.79 |
1.81 |
1.79 |
1.80 |
Computers & related products |
|
1.59 |
1.59 |
1.57 |
1.78 |
1.73 |
1.74 |
Communications equipment |
|
1.74 |
1.72 |
1.76 |
1.73 |
1.69 |
1.66 |
Semiconductors |
|
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
Electrical equipment,
appliances & components |
|
1.68 |
1.69 |
1.67 |
1.75 |
1.74 |
1.74 |
Transportation equipment |
|
1.65 |
1.76 |
1.73 |
1.69 |
1.70 |
1.73 |
Motor vehicles & parts |
|
0.84 |
0.85 |
0.83 |
0.83 |
0.84 |
0.84 |
Nondefense Aircraft & parts |
|
4.61 |
6.21 |
6.00 |
5.26 |
5.30 |
5.78 |
Defense Aircraft & parts |
|
2.35 |
2.34 |
2.25 |
2.26 |
2.37 |
2.38 |
All other durable
goods |
|
1.50 |
1.50 |
1.49 |
1.50 |
1.50 |
1.50 |
Capital goods |
|
2.38 |
2.48 |
2.45 |
2.41 |
2.40 |
2.43 |
Nondefense capital goods |
|
2.51 |
2.64 |
2.61 |
2.57 |
2.54 |
2.57 |
Excluding aircraft |
|
2.07 |
2.05 |
2.04 |
2.05 |
2.02 |
2.02 |
Defense capital goods |
|
1.59 |
1.58 |
1.56 |
1.53 |
1.61 |
1.58 |
|