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New Orders on the rise again in July

U.S. Durable Goods, Orders, Shipments, Economic Indicators



Americans continued to buy big-ticket items after the recent pullback, but Shipments of durable goods fell by -1.59 % to $254 billions.Orders for U.S.-made products designed to last three years or more, such as autos or appliances increased in July on the seasonally adjusted basis by 1.80 % to $250 billions, an increase of $4 billions from $246 in June, reported by the Commerce Department. The rise in demand last month was lead by transportation and defense, but almost every sector tracked by the Commerce Department reported an increase. The growth in the manufacturing sector indicates that the recent decline in new orders is a temporary lull - but another poor report could renew worries over the U.S. growth. Durable Goods orders increased by 1.43 % from July 2018, and inventories by 4.66 %.


In July U.S. durable-goods shipments decreased by -1.59 % to $254 billions, a decrease by $4 billions from $258 in June on the seasonally adjusted basis. Excluding transportation shipments fell by -1.03 %.





Manufacturing New Orders
Primary Metals New Orders
Capital Goods New Orders
Transp. Equip. New Orders
2.79% 1.14% -1.11% -7.26% 5.66% 2.41% 7.24% 4.22%
M/M
Y/Y
M/M
Y/Y
M/M
Y/Y
M/M
Y/Y

What's more, demand for big-ticket outside the defense and transportation sectors, a category known as core capital goods, usually declines in the first month of a new quarter based on long-standing business purchasing habits. Another category of orders closely watched by economists, known as core capital goods, orders sunk despite the increase in total bookings, by -0.70 % on the seasonally adjusted basis, and shipments by -1.35 %.
That category excludes defense and transportation and gives a better indication of longer-term trends in the private sector.
Over the past 12 months, core capital goods bookings decreased by -0.04 %, but inventories grew by 5.18 %.
Inventories increased in July by 0.34 % to $427 billions, an increase of $1 billions from $426 in June on the seasonally adjusted basis, reported by the U.S. Commerce Department. Inventory to shipments ratio grew to 1.68 from 1.65 in the previous month.

Unfilled orders have rebounded from decline in previous period, unfilled orders increased by 0.11 % on the seasonally adjusted basis, led by 1.31 % increase in electrical equipment unfilled bookings, representing 1.72 % of total unfilled orders. Over the past 12 months, Unfilled orders decreased by -0.27 %.


   

New Orders / Shipments Ratio

Inventory / Shipments Ratio

New orders / shipments ratio for total durable goods was 0.99. Excluding transportation new orders / shipments ratio was 0.98. Excluding defense new orders / shipments ratio was 0.99. 
Inventory / shipments ratio for total durable goods was 1.68. Excluding transportation Inventory / shipments ratio was 1.71. Excluding defense Inventory / shipments ratio was 1.67.
 



Shipments Seasonally Adjusted, in millions $ July 2019

adv.
June 2019

adv.
May 2019

adv.
April 2019

adv.
March 2019

adv.
Feb. 2019

adv.
Total
254,036 258,153 254,092 253,302 259,571 258,581
Excluding transportation
167,646 169,399 168,337 167,501 168,866 168,792
Excluding defense
239,358 243,184 239,037 238,355 245,053 244,321
Manufacturing with unfilled orders
174,348 178,109 176,299 176,248 180,127 180,111
Primary metals
20,209 20,637 20,652 21,016 21,382 21,401
Fabricated metal products
33,591 33,915 33,620 33,324 34,164 33,991
Machinery
32,866 33,594 33,419 32,881 33,238 33,336
Computers & electronic products
27,917 28,238 28,311 28,101 27,741 28,038
Computers & related products
1,700 1,756 1,813 1,836 1,742 1,822
Communications equipment
3,916 3,880 3,826 3,838 3,821 3,828
Semiconductors
- - - - - -
Electrical equipment, appliances & components
11,899 11,802 11,586 11,566 11,553 11,536
Transportation equipment
86,390 88,754 85,755 85,801 90,705 89,789
Motor vehicles & parts
4,559 4,590 60,555 4,769 62,994 61,554
Nondefense Aircraft & parts
62,685 62,678 10,407 60,244 13,591 13,795
Defense Aircraft & parts
9,270 11,130 4,708 10,991 4,473 4,668
All other durable goods
41,164 41,213 40,749 40,613 40,788 40,490
Capital goods
87,005 90,250 89,098 88,763 91,580 91,212
Nondefense capital goods
74,401 77,257 76,086 75,919 79,027 78,947
Excluding aircraft
69,441 70,389 70,086 69,390 69,631 69,567
Defense capital goods
12,604 12,993 13,012 12,844 12,553 12,265





New Orders Seasonally Adjusted, in millions $ July 2019

adv.
June 2019

adv.
May 2019

adv.
April 2019

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March 2019

adv.
Feb. 2019

adv.
Total
250,380 245,958 243,367 248,395 258,524 250,577
Excluding transportation
164,055 165,463 163,371 163,018 164,739 164,546
Excluding defense
236,713 233,614 227,976 231,298 242,009 236,385
Manufacturing with unfilled orders
175,035 170,279 169,928 175,522 183,326 176,488
Primary metals
20,273 20,500 20,589 20,864 21,476 21,537
Fabricated metal products
33,953 34,314 33,307 33,278 33,800 34,342
Machinery
32,916 33,364 32,824 32,603 33,156 33,158
Computers & electronic products
23,744 24,192 24,091 23,946 24,168 23,532
Computers & related products
1,705 1,722 1,770 1,822 1,750 1,814
Communications equipment
3,912 3,843 3,695 3,704 3,897 3,586
Semiconductors
- - - - - -
Electrical equipment, appliances & components
12,108 11,887 11,731 11,687 11,489 11,495
Transportation equipment
86,325 80,495 79,996 85,377 93,785 86,031
Motor vehicles & parts
3,527 2,882 60,477 5,456 63,112 61,820
Nondefense Aircraft & parts
62,636 62,561 5,338 60,020 14,457 10,185
Defense Aircraft & parts
10,613 6,236 4,534 9,182 5,559 4,613
All other durable goods
41,061 41,206 40,829 40,640 40,650 40,482
Capital goods
87,635 82,940 84,657 88,684 94,397 86,698
Nondefense capital goods
75,842 72,127 70,792 73,958 80,468 74,548
Excluding aircraft
69,658 70,146 68,950 68,766 69,979 68,873
Defense capital goods
11,793 10,813 13,865 14,726 13,929 12,150




New Orders Seasonally Adjusted, in millions $
July 2019

adv.
June 2019

adv.
May 2019

adv.
April 2019

adv.
March 2019

adv.
Feb. 2019

adv.
Total
250,380 245,958 243,367 248,395 258,524 250,577
Excluding transportation
164,055 165,463 163,371 163,018 164,739 164,546
Excluding defense
236,713 233,614 227,976 231,298 242,009 236,385
Manufacturing with unfilled orders
175,035 170,279 169,928 175,522 183,326 176,488
Primary metals
20,273 20,500 20,589 20,864 21,476 21,537
Fabricated metal products
33,953 34,314 33,307 33,278 33,800 34,342
Machinery
32,916 33,364 32,824 32,603 33,156 33,158
Computers & electronic products
23,744 24,192 24,091 23,946 24,168 23,532
Computers & related products
1,705 1,722 1,770 1,822 1,750 1,814
Communications equipment
3,912 3,843 3,695 3,704 3,897 3,586
Semiconductors
- - - - - -
Electrical equipment, appliances & components
12,108 11,887 11,731 11,687 11,489 11,495
Transportation equipment
86,325 80,495 79,996 85,377 93,785 86,031
Motor vehicles & parts
3,527 2,882 60,477 5,456 63,112 61,820
Nondefense Aircraft & parts
62,636 62,561 5,338 60,020 14,457 10,185
Defense Aircraft & parts
10,613 6,236 4,534 9,182 5,559 4,613
All other durable goods
41,061 41,206 40,829 40,640 40,650 40,482
Capital goods
87,635 82,940 84,657 88,684 94,397 86,698
Nondefense capital goods
75,842 72,127 70,792 73,958 80,468 74,548
Excluding aircraft
69,658 70,146 68,950 68,766 69,979 68,873
Defense capital goods
11,793 10,813 13,865 14,726 13,929 12,150




Unfilled Orders Seasonally Adjusted, in millions $
July 2019

adv.
June 2019

adv.
May 2019

adv.
April 2019

adv.
March 2019

adv.
Feb. 2019

adv.
Total
1,161,639 1,160,358 1,171,228 1,179,098 1,181,868 1,177,643
Excluding transportation
368,420 367,807 367,583 368,492 369,945 370,450
Excluding defense
964,554 961,808 969,096 977,333 981,722 980,286
Manufacturing with unfilled orders
1,161,639 1,160,358 1,171,228 1,179,098 1,181,868 1,177,643
Primary metals
31,309 31,024 31,330 31,529 31,905 31,854
Fabricated metal products
86,515 86,202 85,581 85,772 86,092 86,950
Machinery
103,025 103,141 103,579 104,366 105,093 105,362
Computers & electronic products
118,495 118,524 118,190 118,116 118,370 117,485
Computers & related products
2,152 2,147 2,172 2,215 2,235 2,227
Communications equipment
25,679 25,709 25,746 25,935 26,069 25,986
Semiconductors
- - - - - -
Electrical equipment, appliances & components
20,030 19,771 19,735 19,525 19,276 19,364
Transportation equipment
793,219 792,551 803,645 810,606 811,923 807,193
Motor vehicles & parts
26,919 26,923 27,080 27,054 27,613 27,680
Nondefense Aircraft & parts
581,130 578,775 585,547 591,927 593,874 592,020
Defense Aircraft & parts
79,814 81,087 83,070 83,364 82,390 81,135
All other durable goods
9,046 9,145 9,168 9,184 9,209 9,435
Capital goods
849,484 848,677 859,007 864,538 866,211 861,729
Nondefense capital goods
693,626 691,578 698,748 705,336 708,157 705,713
Excluding aircraft
218,746 218,802 219,108 220,560 221,711 221,356
Defense capital goods
155,858 157,099 160,259 159,202 158,054 156,016



Total Inventories Seasonally Adjusted, in millions $
July 2019

adv.
June 2019

adv.
May 2019

adv.
April 2019

adv.
March 2019

adv.
Feb. 2019

adv.
Total
427,285 425,839 424,577 422,579 420,512 418,924
Excluding transportation
286,212 286,260 286,159 286,491 286,245 284,858
Excluding defense
398,917 397,684 396,771 394,800 393,056 391,641
Manufacturing with unfilled orders
348,372 347,337 346,209 344,681 342,768 341,130
Primary metals
35,735 35,857 36,144 36,533 36,405 36,543
Fabricated metal products
54,720 54,675 54,694 54,880 54,889 54,761
Machinery
72,343 72,125 71,885 71,748 71,631 70,812
Computers & electronic products
43,317 43,537 43,307 43,375 43,638 43,452
Computers & related products
3,797 3,809 3,751 3,734 3,901 3,819
Communications equipment
5,558 5,570 5,534 5,574 5,548 5,562
Semiconductors
- - - - - -
Electrical equipment, appliances & components
20,371 20,334 20,299 20,237 20,097 20,002
Transportation equipment
141,073 139,579 138,418 136,088 134,267 134,066
Motor vehicles & parts
38,420 38,309 38,348 38,049 37,728 37,980
Nondefense Aircraft & parts
73,131 72,032 71,117 69,139 68,108 67,863
Defense Aircraft & parts
13,384 13,335 13,255 13,400 13,173 13,320
All other durable goods
59,726 59,732 59,830 59,718 59,585 59,288
Capital goods
214,493 212,984 211,551 209,246 207,960 206,504
Nondefense capital goods
190,496 189,188 188,090 185,867 184,851 183,566
Excluding aircraft
129,895 129,653 129,337 129,041 129,050 128,089
Defense capital goods
23,997 23,796 23,461 23,379 23,109 22,938




Inventory/Shipments ratio Seasonally Adjusted
July 2019

adv.
June 2019

adv.
May 2019

adv.
April 2019

adv.
March 2019

adv.
Feb. 2019

adv.
Total
1.68 1.65 1.67 1.67 1.62 1.62
Excluding transportation
1.71 1.69 1.70 1.71 1.70 1.69
Excluding defense
1.67 1.64 1.66 1.66 1.60 1.60
Manufacturing with unfilled orders
2.00 1.95 1.96 1.96 1.90 1.89
Primary metals
1.77 1.74 1.75 1.74 1.70 1.71
Fabricated metal products
1.63 1.61 1.63 1.65 1.61 1.61
Machinery
2.20 2.15 2.15 2.18 2.16 2.12
Computers & electronic products
1.55 1.54 1.53 1.54 1.57 1.55
Computers & related products
2.23 2.17 2.07 2.03 2.24 2.10
Communications equipment
1.42 1.44 1.45 1.45 1.45 1.45
Semiconductors
- - - - - -
Electrical equipment, appliances & components
1.71 1.72 1.75 1.75 1.74 1.73
Transportation equipment
1.63 1.57 1.61 1.59 1.48 1.49
Motor vehicles & parts
0.61 0.61 0.63 0.63 0.60 0.62
Nondefense Aircraft & parts
7.89 6.47 6.83 6.29 5.01 4.92
Defense Aircraft & parts
2.94 2.91 2.82 2.81 2.95 2.85
All other durable goods
1.45 1.45 1.47 1.47 1.46 1.46
Capital goods
2.47 2.36 2.37 2.36 2.27 2.26
Nondefense capital goods
2.56 2.45 2.47 2.45 2.34 2.33
Excluding aircraft
1.87 1.84 1.85 1.86 1.85 1.84
Defense capital goods
1.90 1.83 1.80 1.82 1.84 1.87




Source U.S. Census Bureau, Manufacturing and Construction Division


             
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