U.S. Durable Goods New Orders, Durable Goods Shipments by Category and Industry,U.S. Economy

In October durable goods orders dropped by -5.18 % to $249 billions, a decrease by $14 billions from $262 in September on the seasonally adjusted basis. What’s unclear is whether the size of the decline in October reflects a one-month aberration, or the start of a new trend. Economists say it takes at least several months of data to find out. Over the last 12 months, bookings soared by 5.30 %, and inventories by 1.70 %. The increase in orders has been spearheaded by a growth among U.S. manufacturers. They are seeing greater demand for a variety of goods, including passenger jets, primary metals and machinery. Durable goods are big-ticket items such as autos, planes, appliances, furniture and computers designed to last at least three years. While orders jump around from month to month, they have gradually been increasing.

The Commerce Department announced total durable goods inventories edge up by 0.05 % to $411 billions, an increase of $0 billions from $411 in September in October on the seasonally adjusted basis, led by 1.63 % increase in electrical equipment inventories, representing 4.68 % of total inventories. Inventory to shipments ratio grew to 1.61 from 1.60 in the previous month.

What's more, demand for big-ticket outside the defense and transportation sectors, a category known as core capital goods, usually declines in the first month of a new quarter based on long-standing business purchasing habits. Core capital equipment goods, which the government uses to help calculate quarterly reports on U.S. growth, orders fell by -0.38 % on the seasonally adjusted basis, but unfilled orders grew by 0.25 %.
Such core capital goods orders are considered the best gauge of capital spending by businesses.
Over the past 12 months, core capital goods bookings grew by 4.81 %, but unfilled orders fell by -2.29 %.

Manufacturing New Orders		Primary Metals New Orders		Capital Goods New Orders		Transp. Equip. New Orders
-7.31%	3.44%	-3.43%	6.96%	-6.94%	5.63%	-13.01%	9.79%
*M/M*	Y/Y	M/M	Y/Y	M/M	Y/Y	M/M	Y/Y

Unfilled orders fell by -0.26 % on the seasonally adjusted basis, led by -1.01 % growth in primary metals unfilled orders, representing 2.66 % of total unfilled orders. Over the past 12 months, Unfilled orders grew by 4.27 %.
The U.S. Commerce Department reported shipments of U.S.-made products designed to last three years or more, such as autos or appliances dropped by -0.92 % to $254 billions, a decrease by $2 billions from $257 in September in October on the seasonally adjusted basis, led by -14.18 % decrease in defense aircraft and parts shipments, representing 4.98 % of total durable goods shipments. Government purchases of defense products are uneven and can sometimes distort the data.. Excluding transportation shipments fell by -0.32 %.


New Orders / Shipments Ratio	Inventory / Shipments Ratio
New orders / shipments ratio for total durable goods was 0.98. Excluding transportation new orders / shipments ratio was 0.98. Excluding defense new orders / shipments ratio was 0.98.	Inventory / shipments ratio for total durable goods was 1.61. Excluding transportation Inventory / shipments ratio was 1.68. Excluding defense Inventory / shipments ratio was 1.60.

Shipments Seasonally Adjusted, in millions $	Oct. 2018 adv.	Sep. 2018 adv.	Aug. 2018 adv.	July 2018 adv.	June 2018 adv.	May 2018 adv.
Total	254,478	256,848	253,130	250,786	251,603	247,482
Excluding transportation	166,898	167,432	167,100	166,879	166,290	165,288
Excluding defense	240,374	243,056	239,415	237,316	238,267	233,940
Manufacturing with unfilled orders	176,645	179,003	176,017	172,993	175,699	173,973
Primary metals	21,572	21,836	21,793	21,575	21,471	21,277
Fabricated metal products	32,954	33,176	32,918	33,069	32,972	32,740
Machinery	32,724	32,925	33,034	32,884	32,816	32,589
Computers & electronic products	27,306	27,195	27,131	27,217	26,671	26,664
Computers & related products	1,932	1,907	1,947	1,970	1,734	1,806
Communications equipment	3,667	3,591	3,529	3,550	3,536	3,433
Semiconductors	-	-	-	-	-	-
Electrical equipment, appliances & components	11,726	11,536	11,491	11,341	11,386	11,269
Transportation equipment	87,580	89,416	86,030	83,907	85,313	82,194
Motor vehicles & parts	4,757	4,768	59,615	4,655	4,313	55,433
Nondefense Aircraft & parts	60,751	60,806	12,594	59,981	57,917	13,405
Defense Aircraft & parts	12,671	14,764	4,674	10,566	14,224	4,560
All other durable goods	40,616	40,764	40,733	40,793	40,974	40,749
Capital goods	89,506	91,223	88,968	86,291	89,844	88,150
Nondefense capital goods	77,386	79,479	77,343	74,909	78,382	76,603
Excluding aircraft	68,828	68,784	68,846	68,580	68,094	67,392
Defense capital goods	12,120	11,744	11,625	11,382	11,462	11,547

New Orders Seasonally Adjusted, in millions $	Oct. 2018 adv.	Sep. 2018 adv.	Aug. 2018 adv.	July 2018 adv.	June 2018 adv.	May 2018 adv.
Total	248,520	262,098	259,592	246,852	251,884	249,402
Excluding transportation	163,828	164,738	164,284	164,026	164,179	163,585
Excluding defense	235,064	239,658	241,148	233,879	236,831	233,344
Manufacturing with unfilled orders	174,629	188,405	186,416	173,059	180,069	180,021
Primary metals	21,430	22,192	22,073	21,859	21,825	21,922
Fabricated metal products	33,093	33,326	33,383	33,201	33,488	33,454
Machinery	33,157	33,513	33,255	33,196	33,079	33,023
Computers & electronic products	23,792	23,288	23,344	23,531	23,243	23,096
Computers & related products	1,952	1,955	1,969	1,985	1,740	1,815
Communications equipment	3,864	3,629	3,659	3,612	3,726	3,725
Semiconductors	-	-	-	-	-	-
Electrical equipment, appliances & components	11,770	11,491	11,564	11,475	11,492	11,327
Transportation equipment	84,692	97,360	95,308	82,826	87,705	85,817
Motor vehicles & parts	4,710	11,697	59,745	4,289	6,570	55,404
Nondefense Aircraft & parts	60,697	60,823	17,101	60,117	57,868	14,076
Defense Aircraft & parts	10,499	13,649	5,188	9,213	14,678	5,467
All other durable goods	40,586	40,928	40,665	40,764	41,052	40,763
Capital goods	86,801	93,270	97,277	85,572	90,532	90,340
Nondefense capital goods	75,284	79,113	81,268	74,737	78,576	76,817
Excluding aircraft	69,356	69,624	69,475	69,683	68,750	68,327
Defense capital goods	11,517	14,157	16,009	10,835	11,956	13,523

New Orders Seasonally Adjusted, in millions $	Oct. 2018 adv.	Sep. 2018 adv.	Aug. 2018 adv.	July 2018 adv.	June 2018 adv.	May 2018 adv.
Total	248,520	262,098	259,592	246,852	251,884	249,402
Excluding transportation	163,828	164,738	164,284	164,026	164,179	163,585
Excluding defense	235,064	239,658	241,148	233,879	236,831	233,344
Manufacturing with unfilled orders	174,629	188,405	186,416	173,059	180,069	180,021
Primary metals	21,430	22,192	22,073	21,859	21,825	21,922
Fabricated metal products	33,093	33,326	33,383	33,201	33,488	33,454
Machinery	33,157	33,513	33,255	33,196	33,079	33,023
Computers & electronic products	23,792	23,288	23,344	23,531	23,243	23,096
Computers & related products	1,952	1,955	1,969	1,985	1,740	1,815
Communications equipment	3,864	3,629	3,659	3,612	3,726	3,725
Semiconductors	-	-	-	-	-	-
Electrical equipment, appliances & components	11,770	11,491	11,564	11,475	11,492	11,327
Transportation equipment	84,692	97,360	95,308	82,826	87,705	85,817
Motor vehicles & parts	4,710	11,697	59,745	4,289	6,570	55,404
Nondefense Aircraft & parts	60,697	60,823	17,101	60,117	57,868	14,076
Defense Aircraft & parts	10,499	13,649	5,188	9,213	14,678	5,467
All other durable goods	40,586	40,928	40,665	40,764	41,052	40,763
Capital goods	86,801	93,270	97,277	85,572	90,532	90,340
Nondefense capital goods	75,284	79,113	81,268	74,737	78,576	76,817
Excluding aircraft	69,356	69,624	69,475	69,683	68,750	68,327
Defense capital goods	11,517	14,157	16,009	10,835	11,956	13,523

Unfilled Orders Seasonally Adjusted, in millions $	Oct. 2018 adv.	Sep. 2018 adv.	Aug. 2018 adv.	July 2018 adv.	June 2018 adv.	May 2018 adv.
Total	1,183,035	1,186,063	1,176,472	1,164,726	1,165,082	1,160,712
Excluding transportation	367,943	367,392	365,436	363,951	362,779	360,801
Excluding defense	987,830	989,772	989,333	982,648	982,328	979,675
Manufacturing with unfilled orders	1,183,035	1,186,063	1,176,472	1,164,726	1,165,082	1,160,712
Primary metals	31,515	31,836	31,359	31,121	30,788	30,434
Fabricated metal products	84,779	84,896	84,637	83,767	83,862	83,346
Machinery	106,090	105,613	104,913	104,692	104,420	104,157
Computers & electronic products	116,327	115,668	115,451	115,321	115,053	114,392
Computers & related products	2,123	2,103	2,055	2,033	2,021	2,015
Communications equipment	26,549	26,248	26,237	26,080	26,016	25,826
Semiconductors	-	-	-	-	-	-
Electrical equipment, appliances & components	19,768	19,877	19,919	19,821	19,517	19,411
Transportation equipment	815,092	818,671	811,036	800,775	802,303	799,911
Motor vehicles & parts	26,813	26,843	26,825	26,743	26,576	26,625
Nondefense Aircraft & parts	601,786	604,266	606,119	600,810	602,526	602,072
Defense Aircraft & parts	79,487	79,646	72,587	72,025	72,419	70,162
All other durable goods	9,464	9,502	9,157	9,229	9,139	9,061
Capital goods	868,967	872,369	870,158	861,003	861,937	861,249
Nondefense capital goods	715,522	717,930	718,614	714,021	714,235	714,041
Excluding aircraft	223,059	222,495	221,373	220,694	219,467	218,811
Defense capital goods	153,445	154,439	151,544	146,982	147,702	147,208

Total Inventories Seasonally Adjusted, in millions $	Oct. 2018 adv.	Sep. 2018 adv.	Aug. 2018 adv.	July 2018 adv.	June 2018 adv.	May 2018 adv.
Total	410,905	410,719	407,018	408,262	402,836	403,266
Excluding transportation	279,919	280,181	277,704	276,919	275,937	274,524
Excluding defense	383,815	383,602	380,024	381,039	375,629	376,476
Manufacturing with unfilled orders	334,636	334,446	330,953	332,336	327,256	327,929
Primary metals	35,532	35,740	35,583	35,492	34,928	34,709
Fabricated metal products	54,227	54,200	53,556	53,369	53,069	52,467
Machinery	69,340	69,497	68,736	68,192	68,150	67,892
Computers & electronic products	43,067	43,383	42,979	43,217	43,490	43,307
Computers & related products	3,653	3,723	3,664	3,667	3,732	3,695
Communications equipment	5,388	5,351	5,338	5,414	5,435	5,449
Semiconductors	-	-	-	-	-	-
Electrical equipment, appliances & components	19,242	18,934	18,872	18,749	18,686	18,556
Transportation equipment	130,986	130,538	129,314	131,343	126,899	128,742
Motor vehicles & parts	36,469	36,291	36,528	36,438	36,324	36,148
Nondefense Aircraft & parts	66,866	66,618	65,265	67,061	62,916	65,193
Defense Aircraft & parts	13,199	13,138	12,886	12,900	12,846	12,776
All other durable goods	58,511	58,427	57,978	57,900	57,614	57,593
Capital goods	202,846	202,287	200,042	201,493	197,712	199,004
Nondefense capital goods	180,070	179,498	177,410	178,605	174,822	176,538
Excluding aircraft	125,350	125,127	124,081	123,494	123,504	123,110
Defense capital goods	22,776	22,789	22,632	22,888	22,890	22,466

Inventory/Shipments ratio Seasonally Adjusted	Oct. 2018 adv.	Sep. 2018 adv.	Aug. 2018 adv.	July 2018 adv.	June 2018 adv.	May 2018 adv.
Total	1.61	1.60	1.61	1.63	1.60	1.63
Excluding transportation	1.68	1.67	1.66	1.66	1.66	1.66
Excluding defense	1.60	1.58	1.59	1.61	1.58	1.61
Manufacturing with unfilled orders	1.89	1.87	1.88	1.92	1.86	1.88
Primary metals	1.65	1.64	1.63	1.65	1.63	1.63
Fabricated metal products	1.65	1.63	1.63	1.61	1.61	1.60
Machinery	2.12	2.11	2.08	2.07	2.08	2.08
Computers & electronic products	1.58	1.60	1.58	1.59	1.63	1.62
Computers & related products	1.89	1.95	1.88	1.86	2.15	2.05
Communications equipment	1.47	1.49	1.51	1.53	1.54	1.59
Semiconductors	-	-	-	-	-	-
Electrical equipment, appliances & components	1.64	1.64	1.64	1.65	1.64	1.65
Transportation equipment	1.50	1.46	1.50	1.57	1.49	1.57
Motor vehicles & parts	0.60	0.60	0.61	0.61	0.63	0.65
Nondefense Aircraft & parts	5.28	4.51	5.18	6.35	4.42	4.86
Defense Aircraft & parts	2.77	2.76	2.76	2.77	2.98	2.80
All other durable goods	1.44	1.43	1.42	1.42	1.41	1.41
Capital goods	2.27	2.22	2.25	2.34	2.20	2.26
Nondefense capital goods	2.33	2.26	2.29	2.38	2.23	2.30
Excluding aircraft	1.82	1.82	1.80	1.80	1.81	1.83
Defense capital goods	1.88	1.94	1.95	2.01	2.00	1.95

• Source U.S. Census Bureau, Manufacturing and Construction Division

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U.S. Durable Goods, Orders, Shipments, Economic Indicators

New Orders / Shipments Ratio

Inventory / Shipments Ratio