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U.S. Durable Goods, Orders, Shipments, Economic Indicators



In October durable goods orders dropped by -5.18 % to $249 billions, a decrease by $14 billions from $262 in September on the seasonally adjusted basis. What’s unclear is whether the size of the decline in October reflects a one-month aberration, or the start of a new trend. Economists say it takes at least several months of data to find out. Over the last 12 months, bookings soared by 5.30 %, and inventories by 1.70 %. The increase in orders has been spearheaded by a growth among U.S. manufacturers. They are seeing greater demand for a variety of goods, including passenger jets, primary metals and machinery. Durable goods are big-ticket items such as autos, planes, appliances, furniture and computers designed to last at least three years. While orders jump around from month to month, they have gradually been increasing.


The Commerce Department announced total durable goods inventories edge up by 0.05 % to $411 billions, an increase of $0 billions from $411 in September in October on the seasonally adjusted basis, led by 1.63 % increase in electrical equipment inventories, representing 4.68 % of total inventories. Inventory to shipments ratio grew to 1.61 from 1.60 in the previous month.


What's more, demand for big-ticket outside the defense and transportation sectors, a category known as core capital goods, usually declines in the first month of a new quarter based on long-standing business purchasing habits. Core capital equipment goods, which the government uses to help calculate quarterly reports on U.S. growth, orders fell by -0.38 % on the seasonally adjusted basis, but unfilled orders grew by 0.25 %.
Such core capital goods orders are considered the best gauge of capital spending by businesses.
Over the past 12 months, core capital goods bookings grew by 4.81 %, but unfilled orders fell by -2.29 %.



Manufacturing New Orders
Primary Metals New Orders
Capital Goods New Orders
Transp. Equip. New Orders
-7.31% 3.44% -3.43% 6.96% -6.94% 5.63% -13.01% 9.79%
M/M
Y/Y
M/M
Y/Y
M/M
Y/Y
M/M
Y/Y


Unfilled orders fell by -0.26 % on the seasonally adjusted basis, led by -1.01 % growth in primary metals unfilled orders, representing 2.66 % of total unfilled orders. Over the past 12 months, Unfilled orders grew by 4.27 %.
The U.S. Commerce Department reported shipments of U.S.-made products designed to last three years or more, such as autos or appliances dropped by -0.92 % to $254 billions, a decrease by $2 billions from $257 in September in October on the seasonally adjusted basis, led by -14.18 % decrease in defense aircraft and parts shipments, representing 4.98 % of total durable goods shipments. Government purchases of defense products are uneven and can sometimes distort the data.. Excluding transportation shipments fell by -0.32 %.


   

New Orders / Shipments Ratio

Inventory / Shipments Ratio

New orders / shipments ratio for total durable goods was 0.98. Excluding transportation new orders / shipments ratio was 0.98. Excluding defense new orders / shipments ratio was 0.98. 
Inventory / shipments ratio for total durable goods was 1.61. Excluding transportation Inventory / shipments ratio was 1.68. Excluding defense Inventory / shipments ratio was 1.60.
 



Shipments Seasonally Adjusted, in millions $ Oct. 2018

adv.
Sep. 2018

adv.
Aug. 2018

adv.
July 2018

adv.
June 2018

adv.
May 2018

adv.
Total
254,478 256,848 253,130 250,786 251,603 247,482
Excluding transportation
166,898 167,432 167,100 166,879 166,290 165,288
Excluding defense
240,374 243,056 239,415 237,316 238,267 233,940
Manufacturing with unfilled orders
176,645 179,003 176,017 172,993 175,699 173,973
Primary metals
21,572 21,836 21,793 21,575 21,471 21,277
Fabricated metal products
32,954 33,176 32,918 33,069 32,972 32,740
Machinery
32,724 32,925 33,034 32,884 32,816 32,589
Computers & electronic products
27,306 27,195 27,131 27,217 26,671 26,664
Computers & related products
1,932 1,907 1,947 1,970 1,734 1,806
Communications equipment
3,667 3,591 3,529 3,550 3,536 3,433
Semiconductors
- - - - - -
Electrical equipment, appliances & components
11,726 11,536 11,491 11,341 11,386 11,269
Transportation equipment
87,580 89,416 86,030 83,907 85,313 82,194
Motor vehicles & parts
4,757 4,768 59,615 4,655 4,313 55,433
Nondefense Aircraft & parts
60,751 60,806 12,594 59,981 57,917 13,405
Defense Aircraft & parts
12,671 14,764 4,674 10,566 14,224 4,560
All other durable goods
40,616 40,764 40,733 40,793 40,974 40,749
Capital goods
89,506 91,223 88,968 86,291 89,844 88,150
Nondefense capital goods
77,386 79,479 77,343 74,909 78,382 76,603
Excluding aircraft
68,828 68,784 68,846 68,580 68,094 67,392
Defense capital goods
12,120 11,744 11,625 11,382 11,462 11,547





New Orders Seasonally Adjusted, in millions $ Oct. 2018

adv.
Sep. 2018

adv.
Aug. 2018

adv.
July 2018

adv.
June 2018

adv.
May 2018

adv.
Total
248,520 262,098 259,592 246,852 251,884 249,402
Excluding transportation
163,828 164,738 164,284 164,026 164,179 163,585
Excluding defense
235,064 239,658 241,148 233,879 236,831 233,344
Manufacturing with unfilled orders
174,629 188,405 186,416 173,059 180,069 180,021
Primary metals
21,430 22,192 22,073 21,859 21,825 21,922
Fabricated metal products
33,093 33,326 33,383 33,201 33,488 33,454
Machinery
33,157 33,513 33,255 33,196 33,079 33,023
Computers & electronic products
23,792 23,288 23,344 23,531 23,243 23,096
Computers & related products
1,952 1,955 1,969 1,985 1,740 1,815
Communications equipment
3,864 3,629 3,659 3,612 3,726 3,725
Semiconductors
- - - - - -
Electrical equipment, appliances & components
11,770 11,491 11,564 11,475 11,492 11,327
Transportation equipment
84,692 97,360 95,308 82,826 87,705 85,817
Motor vehicles & parts
4,710 11,697 59,745 4,289 6,570 55,404
Nondefense Aircraft & parts
60,697 60,823 17,101 60,117 57,868 14,076
Defense Aircraft & parts
10,499 13,649 5,188 9,213 14,678 5,467
All other durable goods
40,586 40,928 40,665 40,764 41,052 40,763
Capital goods
86,801 93,270 97,277 85,572 90,532 90,340
Nondefense capital goods
75,284 79,113 81,268 74,737 78,576 76,817
Excluding aircraft
69,356 69,624 69,475 69,683 68,750 68,327
Defense capital goods
11,517 14,157 16,009 10,835 11,956 13,523




New Orders Seasonally Adjusted, in millions $
Oct. 2018

adv.
Sep. 2018

adv.
Aug. 2018

adv.
July 2018

adv.
June 2018

adv.
May 2018

adv.
Total
248,520 262,098 259,592 246,852 251,884 249,402
Excluding transportation
163,828 164,738 164,284 164,026 164,179 163,585
Excluding defense
235,064 239,658 241,148 233,879 236,831 233,344
Manufacturing with unfilled orders
174,629 188,405 186,416 173,059 180,069 180,021
Primary metals
21,430 22,192 22,073 21,859 21,825 21,922
Fabricated metal products
33,093 33,326 33,383 33,201 33,488 33,454
Machinery
33,157 33,513 33,255 33,196 33,079 33,023
Computers & electronic products
23,792 23,288 23,344 23,531 23,243 23,096
Computers & related products
1,952 1,955 1,969 1,985 1,740 1,815
Communications equipment
3,864 3,629 3,659 3,612 3,726 3,725
Semiconductors
- - - - - -
Electrical equipment, appliances & components
11,770 11,491 11,564 11,475 11,492 11,327
Transportation equipment
84,692 97,360 95,308 82,826 87,705 85,817
Motor vehicles & parts
4,710 11,697 59,745 4,289 6,570 55,404
Nondefense Aircraft & parts
60,697 60,823 17,101 60,117 57,868 14,076
Defense Aircraft & parts
10,499 13,649 5,188 9,213 14,678 5,467
All other durable goods
40,586 40,928 40,665 40,764 41,052 40,763
Capital goods
86,801 93,270 97,277 85,572 90,532 90,340
Nondefense capital goods
75,284 79,113 81,268 74,737 78,576 76,817
Excluding aircraft
69,356 69,624 69,475 69,683 68,750 68,327
Defense capital goods
11,517 14,157 16,009 10,835 11,956 13,523




Unfilled Orders Seasonally Adjusted, in millions $
Oct. 2018

adv.
Sep. 2018

adv.
Aug. 2018

adv.
July 2018

adv.
June 2018

adv.
May 2018

adv.
Total
1,183,035 1,186,063 1,176,472 1,164,726 1,165,082 1,160,712
Excluding transportation
367,943 367,392 365,436 363,951 362,779 360,801
Excluding defense
987,830 989,772 989,333 982,648 982,328 979,675
Manufacturing with unfilled orders
1,183,035 1,186,063 1,176,472 1,164,726 1,165,082 1,160,712
Primary metals
31,515 31,836 31,359 31,121 30,788 30,434
Fabricated metal products
84,779 84,896 84,637 83,767 83,862 83,346
Machinery
106,090 105,613 104,913 104,692 104,420 104,157
Computers & electronic products
116,327 115,668 115,451 115,321 115,053 114,392
Computers & related products
2,123 2,103 2,055 2,033 2,021 2,015
Communications equipment
26,549 26,248 26,237 26,080 26,016 25,826
Semiconductors
- - - - - -
Electrical equipment, appliances & components
19,768 19,877 19,919 19,821 19,517 19,411
Transportation equipment
815,092 818,671 811,036 800,775 802,303 799,911
Motor vehicles & parts
26,813 26,843 26,825 26,743 26,576 26,625
Nondefense Aircraft & parts
601,786 604,266 606,119 600,810 602,526 602,072
Defense Aircraft & parts
79,487 79,646 72,587 72,025 72,419 70,162
All other durable goods
9,464 9,502 9,157 9,229 9,139 9,061
Capital goods
868,967 872,369 870,158 861,003 861,937 861,249
Nondefense capital goods
715,522 717,930 718,614 714,021 714,235 714,041
Excluding aircraft
223,059 222,495 221,373 220,694 219,467 218,811
Defense capital goods
153,445 154,439 151,544 146,982 147,702 147,208



Total Inventories Seasonally Adjusted, in millions $
Oct. 2018

adv.
Sep. 2018

adv.
Aug. 2018

adv.
July 2018

adv.
June 2018

adv.
May 2018

adv.
Total
410,905 410,719 407,018 408,262 402,836 403,266
Excluding transportation
279,919 280,181 277,704 276,919 275,937 274,524
Excluding defense
383,815 383,602 380,024 381,039 375,629 376,476
Manufacturing with unfilled orders
334,636 334,446 330,953 332,336 327,256 327,929
Primary metals
35,532 35,740 35,583 35,492 34,928 34,709
Fabricated metal products
54,227 54,200 53,556 53,369 53,069 52,467
Machinery
69,340 69,497 68,736 68,192 68,150 67,892
Computers & electronic products
43,067 43,383 42,979 43,217 43,490 43,307
Computers & related products
3,653 3,723 3,664 3,667 3,732 3,695
Communications equipment
5,388 5,351 5,338 5,414 5,435 5,449
Semiconductors
- - - - - -
Electrical equipment, appliances & components
19,242 18,934 18,872 18,749 18,686 18,556
Transportation equipment
130,986 130,538 129,314 131,343 126,899 128,742
Motor vehicles & parts
36,469 36,291 36,528 36,438 36,324 36,148
Nondefense Aircraft & parts
66,866 66,618 65,265 67,061 62,916 65,193
Defense Aircraft & parts
13,199 13,138 12,886 12,900 12,846 12,776
All other durable goods
58,511 58,427 57,978 57,900 57,614 57,593
Capital goods
202,846 202,287 200,042 201,493 197,712 199,004
Nondefense capital goods
180,070 179,498 177,410 178,605 174,822 176,538
Excluding aircraft
125,350 125,127 124,081 123,494 123,504 123,110
Defense capital goods
22,776 22,789 22,632 22,888 22,890 22,466




Inventory/Shipments ratio Seasonally Adjusted
Oct. 2018

adv.
Sep. 2018

adv.
Aug. 2018

adv.
July 2018

adv.
June 2018

adv.
May 2018

adv.
Total
1.61 1.60 1.61 1.63 1.60 1.63
Excluding transportation
1.68 1.67 1.66 1.66 1.66 1.66
Excluding defense
1.60 1.58 1.59 1.61 1.58 1.61
Manufacturing with unfilled orders
1.89 1.87 1.88 1.92 1.86 1.88
Primary metals
1.65 1.64 1.63 1.65 1.63 1.63
Fabricated metal products
1.65 1.63 1.63 1.61 1.61 1.60
Machinery
2.12 2.11 2.08 2.07 2.08 2.08
Computers & electronic products
1.58 1.60 1.58 1.59 1.63 1.62
Computers & related products
1.89 1.95 1.88 1.86 2.15 2.05
Communications equipment
1.47 1.49 1.51 1.53 1.54 1.59
Semiconductors
- - - - - -
Electrical equipment, appliances & components
1.64 1.64 1.64 1.65 1.64 1.65
Transportation equipment
1.50 1.46 1.50 1.57 1.49 1.57
Motor vehicles & parts
0.60 0.60 0.61 0.61 0.63 0.65
Nondefense Aircraft & parts
5.28 4.51 5.18 6.35 4.42 4.86
Defense Aircraft & parts
2.77 2.76 2.76 2.77 2.98 2.80
All other durable goods
1.44 1.43 1.42 1.42 1.41 1.41
Capital goods
2.27 2.22 2.25 2.34 2.20 2.26
Nondefense capital goods
2.33 2.26 2.29 2.38 2.23 2.30
Excluding aircraft
1.82 1.82 1.80 1.80 1.81 1.83
Defense capital goods
1.88 1.94 1.95 2.01 2.00 1.95




Source U.S. Census Bureau, Manufacturing and Construction Division


     
       
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