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New Orders on the rise again in September

U.S. Durable Goods, Orders, Shipments, Economic Indicators



Americans continued to buy big-ticket items after the recent pullback, shipments grew at the higher rate of 1.47 % to $257 billions.In September Orders for U.S.-made products designed to last at least three years jumped by 0.97 % to $262 billions, an increase of $3 billions from $260 in August on the seasonally adjusted basis, as orders for aircrafts and parts grew 255.67 % to $61 billions, reported by the U.S. Commerce Department. The rise in demand last month was lead by transportation and defense, but almost every sector tracked by the Commerce Department reported an increase. The growth in the manufacturing sector indicates that the recent decline in new orders is a temporary lull - but another poor report could renew worries over the U.S. growth. From Sep. 2017, bookings jumped by 9.80 % and shipments by 6.78 %.


Inventories jumped by 0.91 % to $411 billions, an increase of $4 billions from $407 in August on the seasonally adjusted basis, as inventories of aircrafts and parts grew 2.07 % to $67 billions, reported by the U.S. Commerce Department. Inventory to shipments ratio fell to 1.60 from 1.61 in the previous month.


Another category of orders closely watched by economists, known as core capital goods, orders grew less than a half of the growth in total bookings, by 0.21 % on the seasonally adjusted basis and inventories by 0.21 % %.
That category excludes defense and transportation and gives a better indication of longer-term trends in the private sector.
From Sep. 2017, Core capital goods orders jumped by 5.59 % and inventories by 0.37 %.


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Manufacturing New Orders
Primary Metals New Orders
Capital Goods New Orders
Transp. Equip. New Orders
1.07% 9.33% 0.54% 11.55% -4.12% 7.93% 2.15% 19.83%
M/M
Y/Y
M/M
Y/Y
M/M
Y/Y
M/M
Y/Y


Unfilled orders have increased by smaller rate than a month ago, unfilled booking increased by 0.82 % on the seasonally adjusted basis, as unfilled bookings for defense aircraft and parts grew 9.72 % to $80 billions, accounting for 6.72 % of total durable goods unfilled orders. Government purchases of defense products are uneven and can sometimes distort the data. Over the past 12 months, Unfilled orders grew by 4.49 %.
Shipments of U.S.-made products designed to last three years or more, such as autos or appliances increased in September on the seasonally adjusted basis by 1.47 % to $257 billions, an increase of $4 billions from $253 in August, reported by the Commerce Department. Shipments excluding the volatile transportation sector, grew by 0.20 %.
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New Orders / Shipments Ratio

Inventory / Shipments Ratio

New orders / shipments ratio for total durable goods was 1.02. Excluding transportation new orders / shipments ratio was 0.98. Excluding defense new orders / shipments ratio was 0.99. 
Inventory / shipments ratio for total durable goods was 1.60. Excluding transportation Inventory / shipments ratio was 1.67. Excluding defense Inventory / shipments ratio was 1.58.
 



Shipments Seasonally Adjusted, in millions $ Sep. 2018

adv.
Aug. 2018

adv.
July 2018

adv.
June 2018

adv.
May 2018

adv.
April 2018

adv.
Total
256,848 253,130 250,786 251,603 247,482 246,735
Excluding transportation
167,432 167,100 166,879 166,290 165,288 163,914
Excluding defense
243,056 239,415 237,316 238,267 233,940 232,894
Manufacturing with unfilled orders
179,003 176,017 172,993 175,699 173,973 171,036
Primary metals
21,836 21,793 21,575 21,471 21,277 21,223
Fabricated metal products
33,176 32,918 33,069 32,972 32,740 32,387
Machinery
32,925 33,034 32,884 32,816 32,589 32,058
Computers & electronic products
27,195 27,131 27,217 26,671 26,664 26,305
Computers & related products
1,907 1,947 1,970 1,734 1,806 1,808
Communications equipment
3,591 3,529 3,550 3,536 3,433 3,362
Semiconductors
- - - - - -
Electrical equipment, appliances & components
11,536 11,491 11,341 11,386 11,269 11,468
Transportation equipment
89,416 86,030 83,907 85,313 82,194 82,821
Motor vehicles & parts
4,768 59,615 4,655 4,313 55,433 58,294
Nondefense Aircraft & parts
60,806 12,594 59,981 57,917 13,405 10,880
Defense Aircraft & parts
14,764 4,674 10,566 14,224 4,560 4,391
All other durable goods
40,764 40,733 40,793 40,974 40,749 40,473
Capital goods
91,223 88,968 86,291 89,844 88,150 86,098
Nondefense capital goods
79,479 77,343 74,909 78,382 76,603 74,077
Excluding aircraft
68,784 68,846 68,580 68,094 67,392 67,309
Defense capital goods
11,744 11,625 11,382 11,462 11,547 12,021





New Orders Seasonally Adjusted, in millions $ Sep. 2018

adv.
Aug. 2018

adv.
July 2018

adv.
June 2018

adv.
May 2018

adv.
April 2018

adv.
Total
262,098 259,592 246,852 251,884 249,402 248,496
Excluding transportation
164,738 164,284 164,026 164,179 163,585 161,438
Excluding defense
239,658 241,148 233,879 236,831 233,344 235,774
Manufacturing with unfilled orders
188,405 186,416 173,059 180,069 180,021 176,569
Primary metals
22,192 22,073 21,859 21,825 21,922 21,676
Fabricated metal products
33,326 33,383 33,201 33,488 33,454 33,381
Machinery
33,513 33,255 33,196 33,079 33,023 31,632
Computers & electronic products
23,288 23,344 23,531 23,243 23,096 22,762
Computers & related products
1,955 1,969 1,985 1,740 1,815 1,812
Communications equipment
3,629 3,659 3,612 3,726 3,725 3,410
Semiconductors
- - - - - -
Electrical equipment, appliances & components
11,491 11,564 11,475 11,492 11,327 11,568
Transportation equipment
97,360 95,308 82,826 87,705 85,817 87,058
Motor vehicles & parts
11,697 59,745 4,289 6,570 55,404 58,415
Nondefense Aircraft & parts
60,823 17,101 60,117 57,868 14,076 16,228
Defense Aircraft & parts
13,649 5,188 9,213 14,678 5,467 3,849
All other durable goods
40,928 40,665 40,764 41,052 40,763 40,419
Capital goods
93,270 97,277 85,572 90,532 90,340 89,548
Nondefense capital goods
79,113 81,268 74,737 78,576 76,817 78,589
Excluding aircraft
69,624 69,475 69,683 68,750 68,327 67,275
Defense capital goods
14,157 16,009 10,835 11,956 13,523 10,959




New Orders Seasonally Adjusted, in millions $
Sep. 2018

adv.
Aug. 2018

adv.
July 2018

adv.
June 2018

adv.
May 2018

adv.
April 2018

adv.
Total
262,098 259,592 246,852 251,884 249,402 248,496
Excluding transportation
164,738 164,284 164,026 164,179 163,585 161,438
Excluding defense
239,658 241,148 233,879 236,831 233,344 235,774
Manufacturing with unfilled orders
188,405 186,416 173,059 180,069 180,021 176,569
Primary metals
22,192 22,073 21,859 21,825 21,922 21,676
Fabricated metal products
33,326 33,383 33,201 33,488 33,454 33,381
Machinery
33,513 33,255 33,196 33,079 33,023 31,632
Computers & electronic products
23,288 23,344 23,531 23,243 23,096 22,762
Computers & related products
1,955 1,969 1,985 1,740 1,815 1,812
Communications equipment
3,629 3,659 3,612 3,726 3,725 3,410
Semiconductors
- - - - - -
Electrical equipment, appliances & components
11,491 11,564 11,475 11,492 11,327 11,568
Transportation equipment
97,360 95,308 82,826 87,705 85,817 87,058
Motor vehicles & parts
11,697 59,745 4,289 6,570 55,404 58,415
Nondefense Aircraft & parts
60,823 17,101 60,117 57,868 14,076 16,228
Defense Aircraft & parts
13,649 5,188 9,213 14,678 5,467 3,849
All other durable goods
40,928 40,665 40,764 41,052 40,763 40,419
Capital goods
93,270 97,277 85,572 90,532 90,340 89,548
Nondefense capital goods
79,113 81,268 74,737 78,576 76,817 78,589
Excluding aircraft
69,624 69,475 69,683 68,750 68,327 67,275
Defense capital goods
14,157 16,009 10,835 11,956 13,523 10,959




Unfilled Orders Seasonally Adjusted, in millions $
Sep. 2018

adv.
Aug. 2018

adv.
July 2018

adv.
June 2018

adv.
May 2018

adv.
April 2018

adv.
Total
1,186,063 1,176,472 1,164,726 1,165,082 1,160,712 1,153,353
Excluding transportation
367,392 365,436 363,951 362,779 360,801 357,181
Excluding defense
989,772 989,333 982,648 982,328 979,675 975,462
Manufacturing with unfilled orders
1,186,063 1,176,472 1,164,726 1,165,082 1,160,712 1,153,353
Primary metals
31,836 31,359 31,121 30,788 30,434 29,589
Fabricated metal products
84,896 84,637 83,767 83,862 83,346 82,364
Machinery
105,613 104,913 104,692 104,420 104,157 103,114
Computers & electronic products
115,668 115,451 115,321 115,053 114,392 113,816
Computers & related products
2,103 2,055 2,033 2,021 2,015 2,000
Communications equipment
26,248 26,237 26,080 26,016 25,826 25,599
Semiconductors
- - - - - -
Electrical equipment, appliances & components
19,877 19,919 19,821 19,517 19,411 19,313
Transportation equipment
818,671 811,036 800,775 802,303 799,911 796,172
Motor vehicles & parts
26,843 26,825 26,743 26,576 26,625 26,814
Nondefense Aircraft & parts
604,266 606,119 600,810 602,526 602,072 601,703
Defense Aircraft & parts
79,646 72,587 72,025 72,419 70,162 69,107
All other durable goods
9,502 9,157 9,229 9,139 9,061 8,985
Capital goods
872,369 870,158 861,003 861,937 861,249 858,507
Nondefense capital goods
717,930 718,614 714,021 714,235 714,041 713,853
Excluding aircraft
222,495 221,373 220,694 219,467 218,811 217,319
Defense capital goods
154,439 151,544 146,982 147,702 147,208 144,654



Total Inventories Seasonally Adjusted, in millions $
Sep. 2018

adv.
Aug. 2018

adv.
July 2018

adv.
June 2018

adv.
May 2018

adv.
April 2018

adv.
Total
410,719 407,018 408,262 402,836 403,266 401,688
Excluding transportation
280,181 277,704 276,919 275,937 274,524 273,186
Excluding defense
383,602 380,024 381,039 375,629 376,476 375,035
Manufacturing with unfilled orders
334,446 330,953 332,336 327,256 327,929 326,866
Primary metals
35,740 35,583 35,492 34,928 34,709 34,191
Fabricated metal products
54,200 53,556 53,369 53,069 52,467 51,997
Machinery
69,497 68,736 68,192 68,150 67,892 67,835
Computers & electronic products
43,383 42,979 43,217 43,490 43,307 43,246
Computers & related products
3,723 3,664 3,667 3,732 3,695 3,644
Communications equipment
5,351 5,338 5,414 5,435 5,449 5,366
Semiconductors
- - - - - -
Electrical equipment, appliances & components
18,934 18,872 18,749 18,686 18,556 18,411
Transportation equipment
130,538 129,314 131,343 126,899 128,742 128,502
Motor vehicles & parts
36,291 36,528 36,438 36,324 36,148 35,548
Nondefense Aircraft & parts
66,618 65,265 67,061 62,916 65,193 65,639
Defense Aircraft & parts
13,138 12,886 12,900 12,846 12,776 12,734
All other durable goods
58,427 57,978 57,900 57,614 57,593 57,506
Capital goods
202,287 200,042 201,493 197,712 199,004 198,391
Nondefense capital goods
179,498 177,410 178,605 174,822 176,538 176,143
Excluding aircraft
125,127 124,081 123,494 123,504 123,110 122,525
Defense capital goods
22,789 22,632 22,888 22,890 22,466 22,248




Inventory/Shipments ratio Seasonally Adjusted
Sep. 2018

adv.
Aug. 2018

adv.
July 2018

adv.
June 2018

adv.
May 2018

adv.
April 2018

adv.
Total
1.60 1.61 1.63 1.60 1.63 1.63
Excluding transportation
1.67 1.66 1.66 1.66 1.66 1.67
Excluding defense
1.58 1.59 1.61 1.58 1.61 1.61
Manufacturing with unfilled orders
1.87 1.88 1.92 1.86 1.88 1.91
Primary metals
1.64 1.63 1.65 1.63 1.63 1.61
Fabricated metal products
1.63 1.63 1.61 1.61 1.60 1.61
Machinery
2.11 2.08 2.07 2.08 2.08 2.12
Computers & electronic products
1.60 1.58 1.59 1.63 1.62 1.64
Computers & related products
1.95 1.88 1.86 2.15 2.05 2.02
Communications equipment
1.49 1.51 1.53 1.54 1.59 1.60
Semiconductors
- - - - - -
Electrical equipment, appliances & components
1.64 1.64 1.65 1.64 1.65 1.61
Transportation equipment
1.46 1.50 1.57 1.49 1.57 1.55
Motor vehicles & parts
0.60 0.61 0.61 0.63 0.65 0.61
Nondefense Aircraft & parts
4.51 5.18 6.35 4.42 4.86 6.03
Defense Aircraft & parts
2.76 2.76 2.77 2.98 2.80 2.90
All other durable goods
1.43 1.42 1.42 1.41 1.41 1.42
Capital goods
2.22 2.25 2.34 2.20 2.26 2.30
Nondefense capital goods
2.26 2.29 2.38 2.23 2.30 2.38
Excluding aircraft
1.82 1.80 1.80 1.81 1.83 1.82
Defense capital goods
1.94 1.95 2.01 2.00 1.95 1.85




Source U.S. Census Bureau, Manufacturing and Construction Division


     
       
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