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New Orders on the rise again in December

U.S. Durable Goods, Orders, Shipments, Economic Indicators



Americans continued to buy big-ticket items after the recent pullback, excluding defense booking grew even faster 1.98 %. That category excludes defense and gives a better indication of longer-term trends in the private sector.Orders for U.S.-made products designed to last three years or more, such as autos or appliances increased in December on the seasonally adjusted basis by 1.44 % to $254 billions, an increase of $4 billions from $251 in November, reported by the Commerce Department. The rise in demand last month was lead by transportation and defense, but almost every sector tracked by the Commerce Department reported an increase. The growth in the manufacturing sector indicates that the recent decline in new orders is a temporary lull - but another poor report could renew worries over the U.S. growth. Bookings advanced by 2.00 % for the year, and unfilled orders by 3.15 %.


Inventories grew in December by 0.45 % to $415 billions, an increase of $2 billions from $413 in November on the seasonally adjusted basis, as inventories of computers and related products grew the most, up 2.15 % to $4 billions, reported by the Commerce Department. Inventory to shipments ratio fell to 1.60 from 1.61 in the previous month.


What's more, orders for core capital goods decreased despite the increase in total bookings, by -1.13 % on the seasonally adjusted basis and inventories by -1.13 % %.
Such core capital goods orders are considered the best gauge of capital spending by businesses.
Over the past 12 months, core capital goods bookings have climbed by 2.04 % and shipments by 3.26 %.



Manufacturing New Orders
Primary Metals New Orders
Capital Goods New Orders
Transp. Equip. New Orders
1.34% -0.56% 0.03% 3.43% 2.11% 3.65% 3.72% 3.49%
M/M
Y/Y
M/M
Y/Y
M/M
Y/Y
M/M
Y/Y


Unfilled orders declined by -0.13 % on the seasonally adjusted basis, as unfilled orders for electrical equipment fell -1.57 % to $20 billions. Over the last 12 months, Unfilled orders soared by 3.15 %.
Shipments of U.S.-made products designed to last three years or more, such as autos or appliances increased in December on the seasonally adjusted basis by 1.16 % to $260 billions, an increase of $3 billions from $257 in November, reported by the Commerce Department. Shipments excluding the volatile transportation sector, grew by 0.62 %.


   

New Orders / Shipments Ratio

Inventory / Shipments Ratio

New orders / shipments ratio for total durable goods was 0.98. Excluding transportation new orders / shipments ratio was 0.98. Excluding defense new orders / shipments ratio was 0.97. 
Inventory / shipments ratio for total durable goods was 1.60. Excluding transportation Inventory / shipments ratio was 1.69. Excluding defense Inventory / shipments ratio was 1.58.
 



Shipments Seasonally Adjusted, in millions $ Dec. 2018

adv.
Nov. 2018

adv.
Oct. 2018

adv.
Sep. 2018

adv.
Aug. 2018

adv.
July 2018

adv.
Total
259,659 256,690 254,478 256,848 253,130 250,786
Excluding transportation
168,266 167,228 166,898 167,432 167,100 166,879
Excluding defense
245,392 242,880 240,374 243,056 239,415 237,316
Manufacturing with unfilled orders
180,813 178,998 176,645 179,003 176,017 172,993
Primary metals
21,561 21,826 21,572 21,836 21,793 21,575
Fabricated metal products
33,867 33,019 32,954 33,176 32,918 33,069
Machinery
33,037 32,820 32,724 32,925 33,034 32,884
Computers & electronic products
27,849 27,701 27,306 27,195 27,131 27,217
Computers & related products
1,767 1,889 1,932 1,907 1,947 1,970
Communications equipment
3,755 3,643 3,667 3,591 3,529 3,550
Semiconductors
- - - - - -
Electrical equipment, appliances & components
11,469 11,529 11,726 11,536 11,491 11,341
Transportation equipment
91,393 89,462 87,580 89,416 86,030 83,907
Motor vehicles & parts
4,669 4,532 4,757 4,768 59,615 4,655
Nondefense Aircraft & parts
62,097 60,549 60,751 60,806 12,594 59,981
Defense Aircraft & parts
15,053 14,975 12,671 14,764 4,674 10,566
All other durable goods
40,483 40,333 40,616 40,764 40,733 40,793
Capital goods
92,469 91,475 89,506 91,223 88,968 86,291
Nondefense capital goods
79,990 79,612 77,386 79,479 77,343 74,909
Excluding aircraft
69,239 68,958 68,828 68,784 68,846 68,580
Defense capital goods
12,479 11,863 12,120 11,744 11,625 11,382





New Orders Seasonally Adjusted, in millions $ Dec. 2018

adv.
Nov. 2018

adv.
Oct. 2018

adv.
Sep. 2018

adv.
Aug. 2018

adv.
July 2018

adv.
Total
254,445 250,827 248,520 262,098 259,592 246,852
Excluding transportation
164,203 163,823 163,828 164,738 164,284 164,026
Excluding defense
239,230 234,582 235,064 239,658 241,148 233,879
Manufacturing with unfilled orders
179,664 177,296 174,629 188,405 186,416 173,059
Primary metals
21,550 21,544 21,430 22,192 22,073 21,859
Fabricated metal products
34,083 33,567 33,093 33,326 33,383 33,201
Machinery
32,649 32,826 33,157 33,513 33,255 33,196
Computers & electronic products
24,161 24,138 23,792 23,288 23,344 23,531
Computers & related products
1,763 1,951 1,952 1,955 1,969 1,985
Communications equipment
3,571 3,823 3,864 3,629 3,659 3,612
Semiconductors
- - - - - -
Electrical equipment, appliances & components
11,262 11,505 11,770 11,491 11,564 11,475
Transportation equipment
90,242 87,004 84,692 97,360 95,308 82,826
Motor vehicles & parts
4,642 6,813 4,710 11,697 59,745 4,289
Nondefense Aircraft & parts
62,380 60,703 60,697 60,823 17,101 60,117
Defense Aircraft & parts
12,819 10,189 10,499 13,649 5,188 9,213
All other durable goods
40,498 40,243 40,586 40,928 40,665 40,764
Capital goods
91,128 89,242 86,801 93,270 97,277 85,572
Nondefense capital goods
77,825 75,364 75,284 79,113 81,268 74,737
Excluding aircraft
68,502 69,288 69,356 69,624 69,475 69,683
Defense capital goods
13,303 13,878 11,517 14,157 16,009 10,835




New Orders Seasonally Adjusted, in millions $
Dec. 2018

adv.
Nov. 2018

adv.
Oct. 2018

adv.
Sep. 2018

adv.
Aug. 2018

adv.
July 2018

adv.
Total
254,445 250,827 248,520 262,098 259,592 246,852
Excluding transportation
164,203 163,823 163,828 164,738 164,284 164,026
Excluding defense
239,230 234,582 235,064 239,658 241,148 233,879
Manufacturing with unfilled orders
179,664 177,296 174,629 188,405 186,416 173,059
Primary metals
21,550 21,544 21,430 22,192 22,073 21,859
Fabricated metal products
34,083 33,567 33,093 33,326 33,383 33,201
Machinery
32,649 32,826 33,157 33,513 33,255 33,196
Computers & electronic products
24,161 24,138 23,792 23,288 23,344 23,531
Computers & related products
1,763 1,951 1,952 1,955 1,969 1,985
Communications equipment
3,571 3,823 3,864 3,629 3,659 3,612
Semiconductors
- - - - - -
Electrical equipment, appliances & components
11,262 11,505 11,770 11,491 11,564 11,475
Transportation equipment
90,242 87,004 84,692 97,360 95,308 82,826
Motor vehicles & parts
4,642 6,813 4,710 11,697 59,745 4,289
Nondefense Aircraft & parts
62,380 60,703 60,697 60,823 17,101 60,117
Defense Aircraft & parts
12,819 10,189 10,499 13,649 5,188 9,213
All other durable goods
40,498 40,243 40,586 40,928 40,665 40,764
Capital goods
91,128 89,242 86,801 93,270 97,277 85,572
Nondefense capital goods
77,825 75,364 75,284 79,113 81,268 74,737
Excluding aircraft
68,502 69,288 69,356 69,624 69,475 69,683
Defense capital goods
13,303 13,878 11,517 14,157 16,009 10,835




Unfilled Orders Seasonally Adjusted, in millions $
Dec. 2018

adv.
Nov. 2018

adv.
Oct. 2018

adv.
Sep. 2018

adv.
Aug. 2018

adv.
July 2018

adv.
Total
1,180,125 1,181,650 1,183,035 1,186,063 1,176,472 1,164,726
Excluding transportation
369,028 369,213 367,943 367,392 365,436 363,951
Excluding defense
980,603 983,255 987,830 989,772 989,333 982,648
Manufacturing with unfilled orders
1,180,125 1,181,650 1,183,035 1,186,063 1,176,472 1,164,726
Primary metals
31,295 31,124 31,515 31,836 31,359 31,121
Fabricated metal products
85,687 85,533 84,779 84,896 84,637 83,767
Machinery
105,535 106,079 106,090 105,613 104,913 104,692
Computers & electronic products
117,639 117,282 116,327 115,668 115,451 115,321
Computers & related products
2,187 2,194 2,123 2,103 2,055 2,033
Communications equipment
26,430 26,702 26,549 26,248 26,237 26,080
Semiconductors
- - - - - -
Electrical equipment, appliances & components
19,509 19,821 19,768 19,877 19,919 19,821
Transportation equipment
811,097 812,437 815,092 818,671 811,036 800,775
Motor vehicles & parts
27,408 27,181 26,813 26,843 26,825 26,743
Nondefense Aircraft & parts
593,411 595,916 601,786 604,266 606,119 600,810
Defense Aircraft & parts
82,130 82,262 79,487 79,646 72,587 72,025
All other durable goods
9,363 9,374 9,464 9,502 9,157 9,229
Capital goods
865,270 866,626 868,967 872,369 870,158 861,003
Nondefense capital goods
708,145 710,594 715,522 717,930 718,614 714,021
Excluding aircraft
222,568 223,582 223,059 222,495 221,373 220,694
Defense capital goods
157,125 156,032 153,445 154,439 151,544 146,982



Total Inventories Seasonally Adjusted, in millions $
Dec. 2018

adv.
Nov. 2018

adv.
Oct. 2018

adv.
Sep. 2018

adv.
Aug. 2018

adv.
July 2018

adv.
Total
414,720 412,844 410,905 410,719 407,018 408,262
Excluding transportation
283,548 281,689 279,919 280,181 277,704 276,919
Excluding defense
387,719 385,720 383,815 383,602 380,024 381,039
Manufacturing with unfilled orders
337,822 335,772 334,636 334,446 330,953 332,336
Primary metals
36,623 36,127 35,532 35,740 35,583 35,492
Fabricated metal products
54,648 54,372 54,227 54,200 53,556 53,369
Machinery
70,193 69,708 69,340 69,497 68,736 68,192
Computers & electronic products
43,288 43,252 43,067 43,383 42,979 43,217
Computers & related products
3,804 3,724 3,653 3,723 3,664 3,667
Communications equipment
5,382 5,433 5,388 5,351 5,338 5,414
Semiconductors
- - - - - -
Electrical equipment, appliances & components
19,656 19,364 19,242 18,934 18,872 18,749
Transportation equipment
131,172 131,155 130,986 130,538 129,314 131,343
Motor vehicles & parts
36,905 36,881 36,469 36,291 36,528 36,438
Nondefense Aircraft & parts
66,437 66,447 66,866 66,618 65,265 67,061
Defense Aircraft & parts
12,915 13,193 13,199 13,138 12,886 12,900
All other durable goods
59,140 58,866 58,511 58,427 57,978 57,900
Capital goods
204,142 203,330 202,846 202,287 200,042 201,493
Nondefense capital goods
181,484 180,547 180,070 179,498 177,410 178,605
Excluding aircraft
126,980 126,051 125,350 125,127 124,081 123,494
Defense capital goods
22,658 22,783 22,776 22,789 22,632 22,888




Inventory/Shipments ratio Seasonally Adjusted
Dec. 2018

adv.
Nov. 2018

adv.
Oct. 2018

adv.
Sep. 2018

adv.
Aug. 2018

adv.
July 2018

adv.
Total
1.60 1.61 1.61 1.60 1.61 1.63
Excluding transportation
1.69 1.68 1.68 1.67 1.66 1.66
Excluding defense
1.58 1.59 1.60 1.58 1.59 1.61
Manufacturing with unfilled orders
1.87 1.88 1.89 1.87 1.88 1.92
Primary metals
1.70 1.66 1.65 1.64 1.63 1.65
Fabricated metal products
1.61 1.65 1.65 1.63 1.63 1.61
Machinery
2.12 2.12 2.12 2.11 2.08 2.07
Computers & electronic products
1.55 1.56 1.58 1.60 1.58 1.59
Computers & related products
2.15 1.97 1.89 1.95 1.88 1.86
Communications equipment
1.43 1.49 1.47 1.49 1.51 1.53
Semiconductors
- - - - - -
Electrical equipment, appliances & components
1.71 1.68 1.64 1.64 1.64 1.65
Transportation equipment
1.44 1.47 1.50 1.46 1.50 1.57
Motor vehicles & parts
0.59 0.61 0.60 0.60 0.61 0.61
Nondefense Aircraft & parts
4.41 4.44 5.28 4.51 5.18 6.35
Defense Aircraft & parts
2.77 2.91 2.77 2.76 2.76 2.77
All other durable goods
1.46 1.46 1.44 1.43 1.42 1.42
Capital goods
2.21 2.22 2.27 2.22 2.25 2.34
Nondefense capital goods
2.27 2.27 2.33 2.26 2.29 2.38
Excluding aircraft
1.83 1.83 1.82 1.82 1.80 1.80
Defense capital goods
1.82 1.92 1.88 1.94 1.95 2.01




Source U.S. Census Bureau, Manufacturing and Construction Division


             
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