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Durable Goods orders rebounded in March

U.S. Durable Goods, Orders, Shipments, Economic Indicators



U.S. Durable Goods orders grew again after dipping in the last month, as bookings outgrow production.In March total durable goods orders grew by 3.17 % to $259 billions, an increase of $8 billions from $251 in February on the seasonally adjusted basis. The rise in demand last month was lead by transportation and defense, but almost every sector tracked by the Commerce Department reported an increase. The rebound in durable goods orders is an encouraging sign, particularly in light of the loss of momentum in the manufacturing sector evident in recent survey reports. Durable Goods orders increased by 1.40 % from March 2018, and inventories by 2.31 %. The normal wild swings in big-ticket purchases continue but the trend is still up and that is all that matters, some Wallstreet economists added. Durable goods are typically bulky or heavy products designed to last at three years, such as trains, computers or furniture. The government’s durables report, however, is particularly volatile and subject to large swings month to month.


Another category of orders closely watched by economists, known as core capital goods, orders have climbed less than total orders by 1.61 % on the seasonally adjusted basis and inventories by 1.61 % %. Over the past 12 months, core capital goods bookings grew by 4.08 %, but unfilled orders fell by -2.83 %.

Shipments increased in March by 0.38 % to $260 billions, an increase of $1 billions from $259 in February on the seasonally adjusted basis, reported by the U.S. Commerce Department. Shipments excluding the volatile transportation sector, grew by 0.04 %.



Manufacturing New Orders
Primary Metals New Orders
Capital Goods New Orders
Transp. Equip. New Orders
3.87% -1.30% -0.28% -2.97% 8.88% 0.68% 9.01% 2.59%
M/M
Y/Y
M/M
Y/Y
M/M
Y/Y
M/M
Y/Y

Inventories increased in March by 0.38 % to $421 billions, an increase of $2 billions from $419 in February on the seasonally adjusted basis, reported by the U.S. Commerce Department. Inventory to shipments ratio was unchanged at 1.62.

Unfilled orders have rebounded from decline in previous period, unfilled orders surged by 0.36 % on the seasonally adjusted basis, as unfilled bookings for defense aircraft and parts grew 1.55 % to $82 billions, accounting for 6.97 % of total durable goods unfilled orders. Government purchases of defense products are uneven and can sometimes distort the data. total durable goods inventories grew by 2.42 % over the past 12 months.



   

New Orders / Shipments Ratio

Inventory / Shipments Ratio

New orders / shipments ratio for total durable goods was 1.00. Excluding transportation new orders / shipments ratio was 0.98. Excluding defense new orders / shipments ratio was 0.99. 
Inventory / shipments ratio for total durable goods was 1.62. Excluding transportation Inventory / shipments ratio was 1.70. Excluding defense Inventory / shipments ratio was 1.60.
 



Shipments Seasonally Adjusted, in millions $ March 2019

adv.
Feb. 2019

adv.
Jan. 2019

rest.
Dec. 2018

adv.
Nov. 2018

adv.
Oct. 2018

adv.
Total
259,571 258,581 258,062 259,659 256,690 254,478
Excluding transportation
168,866 168,792 167,977 168,266 167,228 166,898
Excluding defense
245,053 244,321 242,973 245,392 242,880 240,374
Manufacturing with unfilled orders
180,127 180,111 179,855 180,813 178,998 176,645
Primary metals
21,382 21,401 21,261 21,561 21,826 21,572
Fabricated metal products
34,164 33,991 33,780 33,867 33,019 32,954
Machinery
33,238 33,336 33,315 33,037 32,820 32,724
Computers & electronic products
27,741 28,038 27,721 27,849 27,701 27,306
Computers & related products
1,742 1,822 1,784 1,767 1,889 1,932
Communications equipment
3,821 3,828 3,815 3,755 3,643 3,667
Semiconductors
- - - - - -
Electrical equipment, appliances & components
11,553 11,536 11,460 11,469 11,529 11,726
Transportation equipment
90,705 89,789 90,085 91,393 89,462 87,580
Motor vehicles & parts
4,473 61,554 5,193 4,669 4,532 4,757
Nondefense Aircraft & parts
62,994 13,795 61,524 62,097 60,549 60,751
Defense Aircraft & parts
13,591 4,668 13,362 15,053 14,975 12,671
All other durable goods
40,788 40,490 40,440 40,483 40,333 40,616
Capital goods
91,580 91,212 91,418 92,469 91,475 89,506
Nondefense capital goods
79,027 78,947 78,472 79,990 79,612 77,386
Excluding aircraft
69,631 69,567 69,592 69,239 68,958 68,828
Defense capital goods
12,553 12,265 12,946 12,479 11,863 12,120





New Orders Seasonally Adjusted, in millions $ March 2019

adv.
Feb. 2019

adv.
Jan. 2019

rest.
Dec. 2018

adv.
Nov. 2018

adv.
Oct. 2018

adv.
Total
258,524 250,577 254,741 254,445 250,827 248,520
Excluding transportation
164,739 164,546 164,417 164,203 163,823 163,828
Excluding defense
242,009 236,385 240,897 239,230 234,582 235,064
Manufacturing with unfilled orders
183,326 176,488 180,618 179,664 177,296 174,629
Primary metals
21,476 21,537 21,388 21,550 21,544 21,430
Fabricated metal products
33,800 34,342 34,249 34,083 33,567 33,093
Machinery
33,156 33,158 33,262 32,649 32,826 33,157
Computers & electronic products
24,168 23,532 23,609 24,161 24,138 23,792
Computers & related products
1,750 1,814 1,824 1,763 1,951 1,952
Communications equipment
3,897 3,586 3,644 3,571 3,823 3,864
Semiconductors
- - - - - -
Electrical equipment, appliances & components
11,489 11,495 11,381 11,262 11,505 11,770
Transportation equipment
93,785 86,031 90,324 90,242 87,004 84,692
Motor vehicles & parts
5,559 61,820 4,500 4,642 6,813 4,710
Nondefense Aircraft & parts
63,112 10,185 61,888 62,380 60,703 60,697
Defense Aircraft & parts
14,457 4,613 14,780 12,819 10,189 10,499
All other durable goods
40,650 40,482 40,528 40,498 40,243 40,586
Capital goods
94,397 86,698 92,094 91,128 89,242 86,801
Nondefense capital goods
80,468 74,548 79,521 77,825 75,364 75,284
Excluding aircraft
69,979 68,873 68,939 68,502 69,288 69,356
Defense capital goods
13,929 12,150 12,573 13,303 13,878 11,517




New Orders Seasonally Adjusted, in millions $
March 2019

adv.
Feb. 2019

adv.
Jan. 2019

rest.
Dec. 2018

adv.
Nov. 2018

adv.
Oct. 2018

adv.
Total
258,524 250,577 254,741 254,445 250,827 248,520
Excluding transportation
164,739 164,546 164,417 164,203 163,823 163,828
Excluding defense
242,009 236,385 240,897 239,230 234,582 235,064
Manufacturing with unfilled orders
183,326 176,488 180,618 179,664 177,296 174,629
Primary metals
21,476 21,537 21,388 21,550 21,544 21,430
Fabricated metal products
33,800 34,342 34,249 34,083 33,567 33,093
Machinery
33,156 33,158 33,262 32,649 32,826 33,157
Computers & electronic products
24,168 23,532 23,609 24,161 24,138 23,792
Computers & related products
1,750 1,814 1,824 1,763 1,951 1,952
Communications equipment
3,897 3,586 3,644 3,571 3,823 3,864
Semiconductors
- - - - - -
Electrical equipment, appliances & components
11,489 11,495 11,381 11,262 11,505 11,770
Transportation equipment
93,785 86,031 90,324 90,242 87,004 84,692
Motor vehicles & parts
5,559 61,820 4,500 4,642 6,813 4,710
Nondefense Aircraft & parts
63,112 10,185 61,888 62,380 60,703 60,697
Defense Aircraft & parts
14,457 4,613 14,780 12,819 10,189 10,499
All other durable goods
40,650 40,482 40,528 40,498 40,243 40,586
Capital goods
94,397 86,698 92,094 91,128 89,242 86,801
Nondefense capital goods
80,468 74,548 79,521 77,825 75,364 75,284
Excluding aircraft
69,979 68,873 68,939 68,502 69,288 69,356
Defense capital goods
13,929 12,150 12,573 13,303 13,878 11,517




Unfilled Orders Seasonally Adjusted, in millions $
March 2019

adv.
Feb. 2019

adv.
Jan. 2019

rest.
Dec. 2018

adv.
Nov. 2018

adv.
Oct. 2018

adv.
Total
1,181,868 1,177,643 1,181,266 1,180,125 1,181,650 1,183,035
Excluding transportation
369,945 370,450 370,315 369,028 369,213 367,943
Excluding defense
981,722 980,286 983,841 980,603 983,255 987,830
Manufacturing with unfilled orders
1,181,868 1,177,643 1,181,266 1,180,125 1,181,650 1,183,035
Primary metals
31,905 31,854 31,718 31,295 31,124 31,515
Fabricated metal products
86,092 86,950 86,599 85,687 85,533 84,779
Machinery
105,093 105,362 105,540 105,535 106,079 106,090
Computers & electronic products
118,370 117,485 117,610 117,639 117,282 116,327
Computers & related products
2,235 2,227 2,235 2,187 2,194 2,123
Communications equipment
26,069 25,986 26,228 26,430 26,702 26,549
Semiconductors
- - - - - -
Electrical equipment, appliances & components
19,276 19,364 19,405 19,509 19,821 19,768
Transportation equipment
811,923 807,193 810,951 811,097 812,437 815,092
Motor vehicles & parts
27,613 27,680 27,414 27,408 27,181 26,813
Nondefense Aircraft & parts
593,874 592,020 595,630 593,411 595,916 601,786
Defense Aircraft & parts
82,390 81,135 81,190 82,130 82,262 79,487
All other durable goods
9,209 9,435 9,443 9,363 9,374 9,464
Capital goods
866,211 861,729 866,243 865,270 866,626 868,967
Nondefense capital goods
708,157 705,713 710,112 708,145 710,594 715,522
Excluding aircraft
221,711 221,356 222,050 222,568 223,582 223,059
Defense capital goods
158,054 156,016 156,131 157,125 156,032 153,445



Total Inventories Seasonally Adjusted, in millions $
March 2019

adv.
Feb. 2019

adv.
Jan. 2019

rest.
Dec. 2018

adv.
Nov. 2018

adv.
Oct. 2018

adv.
Total
420,512 418,924 417,596 414,720 412,844 410,905
Excluding transportation
286,245 284,858 284,864 283,548 281,689 279,919
Excluding defense
393,056 391,641 390,289 387,719 385,720 383,815
Manufacturing with unfilled orders
342,768 341,130 340,147 337,822 335,772 334,636
Primary metals
36,405 36,543 36,676 36,623 36,127 35,532
Fabricated metal products
54,889 54,761 54,763 54,648 54,372 54,227
Machinery
71,631 70,812 70,904 70,193 69,708 69,340
Computers & electronic products
43,638 43,452 43,326 43,288 43,252 43,067
Computers & related products
3,901 3,819 3,703 3,804 3,724 3,653
Communications equipment
5,548 5,562 5,476 5,382 5,433 5,388
Semiconductors
- - - - - -
Electrical equipment, appliances & components
20,097 20,002 19,844 19,656 19,364 19,242
Transportation equipment
134,267 134,066 132,732 131,172 131,155 130,986
Motor vehicles & parts
37,728 37,980 37,472 36,905 36,881 36,469
Nondefense Aircraft & parts
68,108 67,863 67,013 66,437 66,447 66,866
Defense Aircraft & parts
13,173 13,320 13,322 12,915 13,193 13,199
All other durable goods
59,585 59,288 59,351 59,140 58,866 58,511
Capital goods
207,960 206,504 206,042 204,142 203,330 202,846
Nondefense capital goods
184,851 183,566 183,097 181,484 180,547 180,070
Excluding aircraft
129,050 128,089 128,050 126,980 126,051 125,350
Defense capital goods
23,109 22,938 22,945 22,658 22,783 22,776




Inventory/Shipments ratio Seasonally Adjusted
March 2019

adv.
Feb. 2019

adv.
Jan. 2019

rest.
Dec. 2018

adv.
Nov. 2018

adv.
Oct. 2018

adv.
Total
1.62 1.62 1.62 1.60 1.61 1.61
Excluding transportation
1.70 1.69 1.70 1.69 1.68 1.68
Excluding defense
1.60 1.60 1.61 1.58 1.59 1.60
Manufacturing with unfilled orders
1.90 1.89 1.89 1.87 1.88 1.89
Primary metals
1.70 1.71 1.73 1.70 1.66 1.65
Fabricated metal products
1.61 1.61 1.62 1.61 1.65 1.65
Machinery
2.16 2.12 2.13 2.12 2.12 2.12
Computers & electronic products
1.57 1.55 1.56 1.55 1.56 1.58
Computers & related products
2.24 2.10 2.08 2.15 1.97 1.89
Communications equipment
1.45 1.45 1.44 1.43 1.49 1.47
Semiconductors
- - - - - -
Electrical equipment, appliances & components
1.74 1.73 1.73 1.71 1.68 1.64
Transportation equipment
1.48 1.49 1.47 1.44 1.47 1.50
Motor vehicles & parts
0.60 0.62 0.61 0.59 0.61 0.60
Nondefense Aircraft & parts
5.01 4.92 5.02 4.41 4.44 5.28
Defense Aircraft & parts
2.95 2.85 2.57 2.77 2.91 2.77
All other durable goods
1.46 1.46 1.47 1.46 1.46 1.44
Capital goods
2.27 2.26 2.25 2.21 2.22 2.27
Nondefense capital goods
2.34 2.33 2.33 2.27 2.27 2.33
Excluding aircraft
1.85 1.84 1.84 1.83 1.83 1.82
Defense capital goods
1.84 1.87 1.77 1.82 1.92 1.88




Source U.S. Census Bureau, Manufacturing and Construction Division


             
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