Gevo Inc's Competitiveness

Our isobutanol is targeted for use in the following markets: direct use as a solvent and gasoline blendstock, use in the chemicals industry for producing rubber, plastics, fibers, polyester and other polymers and use in the production of hydrocarbon fuels. We face competitors in each market, some of which are limited to individual markets, and some of which will compete with us across all of our target markets. Many of our competitors have greater financial resources than we do.

Renewable isobutanol. We are a leader in the development of renewable isobutanol via fermentation of renewable plant biomass. While the competitive landscape in renewable isobutanol production is limited at this time, we are aware of other companies that are seeking to develop isobutanol production capabilities, including Butamax with whom we have entered into the License Agreement.

Solvent markets. We also face competition from companies that are focused on the development of n-butanol, a related compound to isobutanol. These companies include Cathay Industrial Biotech Ltd., METabolic EXplorer S.A., Eastman Chemicals Company, and Green Biologics Ltd. We understand that these companies produce n-butanol from an acetone-butanol-ethanol (“ABE”) fermentation process primarily for the small chemicals markets. ABE fermentation using a Clostridia biocatalyst has been used in industrial settings since 1919. As discussed in several academic papers analyzing the ABE process, such fermentation is handicapped in competitiveness by high energy costs due to low concentrations of butanol produced and significant volumes of water processed. It requires high capital and operating costs to support industrial scale production due to the low rates of the Clostridia fermentation, and results in a lower butanol yield because it produces ethanol and acetone as by-products. We believe our proprietary process has many significant advantages over the ABE process because of its limited requirements for new capital expenditures, its production output of only isobutanol as a primary product and its limited water usage in production. We believe these advantages will produce a lower cost isobutanol compared to n-butanol produced by ABE fermentation. N-butanol’s lower octane rating compared to isobutanol gives it a lower value in the gasoline blendstock market, but n-butanol can compete directly in many solvent markets where n-butanol and isobutanol have similar performance characteristics.

Gasoline blendstocks. In the gasoline blendstock market isobutanol competes with non-renewable alkylate and renewable ethanol. We estimate the total potential global market for isobutanol as a gasoline blendstock to be approximately 40 BGPY. Alkylate is a premium value gasoline blendstock typically derived from petroleum. However, petroleum feeds for alkylate manufacture are pressured by continued increases in the use of natural gas to generate olefins for the production of alkylate, due to the low relative cost of natural gas compared to petroleum. Isobutanol has fuel properties similar to alkylate and, as such, we expect that isobutanol could be used as a substitute for some alkylate in fuel applications. Ethanol is renewable and has a high octane rating, and although it has a high RVP, ethanol receives a one pound RVP waiver in a large portion of the U.S. gasoline market. Renewability is important in the U.S. because the Renewable Fuels Standard program mandates that a minimum volume of renewable blendstocks be used in gasoline each year. A high octane rating is important for engine performance and is a valuable characteristic because many inexpensive gasoline blendstocks have lower octane ratings. Low RVP is important because the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (“EPA”) sets maximum permissible RVP levels for gasoline. In markets where low RVP is important, isobutanol can enable refiners to meet fuel specifications at lower cost. Ethanol’s vapor pressure waiver is valuable because it offsets much of the negative value of ethanol’s high RVP. We believe that our isobutanol will be valued for its combination of low RVP, low water solubility, relatively high octane and renewability.

Many production and technology supply companies are working to develop ethanol production from cellulosic feedstocks, including Shell Oil Company, DuPont-Danisco Cellulosic Ethanol LLC, POET, LLC, ICM, Mascoma Corporation, Inbicon A/S, INEOS New Planet BioEnergy LLC, Archer Daniels Midland Company, BlueFire Renewables, Inc., ZeaChem Inc., Iogen Corporation, Qteros, Inc., and many smaller startup companies. Successful commercialization by some or all of these companies will increase the supply of renewable gasoline blendstocks worldwide, potentially reducing the market size or margins available to isobutanol.

Plastics, fibers, polyester, rubber and other polymers. Isobutanol can be dehydrated to produce butenes, hydrocarbon intermediates currently used in the production of plastics, fibers, polyester, rubber and other polymers. The straightforward conversion of our isobutanol into butenes is a fundamentally important process that enables isobutanol to be used as a building block chemical in multiple markets. These markets include butyl rubber, lubricants and additives derived from butenes such as isobutylene, poly methyl methacrylate from isobutanol, propylene for polypropylene from isobutylene, polyesters made via PX from isobutylene and polystyrene made via styrene.

In these markets, we compete with the renewable isobutanol companies and renewable n-butanol producers described previously, and face similar competitive challenges. Our competitive position versus petroleum-derived plastics, fibers, rubber and other polymers varies, but we believe that the high volatility of petroleum prices, often tight supply markets for petroleum-based petrochemical feedstocks and the desire of many consumers for goods made from more renewable sources will enable us to compete effectively. However, petrochemical companies may develop alternative pathways to produce petrochemical-based hydrocarbon products that may be less expensive than our isobutanol or more readily available or developed in conjunction with major petrochemical, refiner or end user companies. These products may have economic or other advantages over the plastics, fibers, polyester, rubber and other polymers developed from our isobutanol. Further, some of these companies have access to significantly more resources than we do to develop products.

Additionally, Global Bioenergies, S.A. is pursuing the direct production of isobutylene from renewable carbohydrates. Through analysis of the fermentation pathway, we believe that the direct production of butenes such as isobutylene via fermentation will have higher capital and operating costs than production of butenes derived from our isobutanol.

Hydrocarbon fuels. Beyond direct use as a fuel additive, isobutanol can be converted into many hydrocarbon fuels and specialty blendstocks, offering substantial potential for additional demand in the fuels markets. We will compete with the incumbent petroleum-based fuels industry, as well as biofuels companies. The incumbent petroleum-based fuels industry makes the vast majority of the world’s gasoline, jet and diesel fuels and blendstocks. The petroleum-based fuels industry is mature, and includes a substantial base of infrastructure for the production and distribution of petroleum-derived products. However, the industry faces challenges from its dependence on petroleum. High and volatile oil prices will provide an opportunity for renewable producers relying on biobased feedstocks like corn, which in recent years have had lower price volatility than oil, to compete.

Biofuels companies will provide substantial competition in the gasoline market. These biofuels competitors are numerous and include both large established companies and numerous startups. Government tax incentives for renewable fuel producers and regulations such as the RFS2 help provide opportunities for renewable fuels producers to compete. In particular, in the gasoline and gasoline blendstock markets, Virent Energy Systems, Inc. (“Virent”) offers a competitive process for making gasoline and gasoline blendstocks. However, we have the advantage of being able to target conversion of isobutanol into specific high-value molecules such as isooctane, which can be used to make gasoline blendstocks with a higher value than whole gasoline, which we do not believe Virent’s process can match. In the jet fuel market, we may face competition from companies such as Synthetic Genomics, Inc., Sapphire Energy, Inc. and Exxon-Mobil Corporation, which are pursuing production of jet fuel from algae-based technology. Renewable Energy Group, Inc. and others are also targeting production of jet fuels from vegetable oils and animal fats. Red Rock Biofuels LLC, Fulcrum BioEnergy, Inc. and others are planning to produce jet fuel from renewable biomass. In the diesel fuels market, competitors such as Amyris Biotechnologies, Inc. (“Amyris”) provide alternative hydrocarbon diesel fuel. We believe our technology provides a higher yield on feedstock than the isoprenoid fermentation pathway developed by Amyris, which we believe will yield a production cost advantage.

Ethanol. We compete with numerous ethanol producers located throughout the U.S., many of which have much greater resources than we do, including Archer-Daniels-Midland Company, Green Plains, Inc., POET, LLC and Valero Energy Corporation. Competition for corn supply from other ethanol plants and other corn consumers will likely exist in all areas and regions in which our current and future plants will operate. We also face competition from foreign producers of ethanol and such competition may increase significantly in the future. Large international companies have developed, or are developing, increased foreign ethanol production capacities. Brazil is the world’s second largest ethanol producing country. Brazil’s ethanol production is sugarcane-based, as opposed to corn-based, and has historically been less expensive to produce.